Terrorism and Security in Northern Afghanistan and the Regional Formula for Cooperation |
Increased focus on multilateral regional cooperation formats, including the Moscow talks, the Tehran summit, the work of the Contact Group, and engagement with neighboring countries, offers real prospects for achieving lasting stability both in Afghanistan and in neighboring states.
Undoubtedly, groups such as ISIS-K* are the main culprits in terrorist attacks in northern Afghanistan.
Badakhshan and provinces such as Nangarhar, Kunar, Nuristan (east), and Badakhshan, Takhar, and Kunduz (northeast) serve as the main bases for terrorist groups. The long and mountainous borders with Pakistan and Tajikistan and the diverse ethnic populations (Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek) are fertile ground for terrorist activities.
However, some sources say that the drone attack on Tajik soil was carried out by the Taliban or a network of miners associated with Taliban individuals or factions.
From this perspective, there is a background of dissatisfaction in the Taliban decision-making body and security forces, or even dissatisfaction with the development of relations with Tajikistan or China in helping or preventing terrorist attacks.
From another perspective, some terrorist attacks are also related to changes in the Taliban’s unwritten agreements with Islamist groups in the north. That means the Taliban’s control capabilities over these groups have become weaker.
In another dimension, some recent attacks by terrorist groups may be related to the weakening of Taliban control. That means, given the escalation of tensions with Pakistan, the increased focus on the south, and the reduction of capabilities in the north, it is more difficult to control security and borders in the north.
Growing challenges
While armed drones, cheap smuggled technologies, and the technical progress of jihadists are helping groups, extremist actors are expanding and destabilizing countries by recruiting and inspiring jihadist networks.
The lack of alternative livelihoods and economic insecurity, poverty, and unemployment in Afghanistan are leading to increased........