What appears as a series of disconnected crises in the Middle East is, in fact, one unfolding story. The region’s instability is no longer driven primarily by old rivalries or proxy wars but by something more dangerous: the normalization of force as a routine tool of politics. 

The Implosion of “Stable” Alliances: Saudi, UAE and Yemen

The Middle East’s fracturing is no longer just about ancient rivalries and sectarian divides. What’s striking today is how allies are turning on each other, exposing fissures beneath the veneer of long-heralded regional stability. Nowhere is this clearer than in Yemen, where a battle once framed as a united front against Iran-aligned Houthi rebels has given way to an open rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), two of Washington’s closest partners.

At the end of 2025, Saudi Arabia bombed what it said were weapons shipments linked to the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) in southern Yemen, prompting Riyadh to demand all Emirati troops leave the country. This was not a minor disagreement; it was a direct confrontation between supposed allies on Yemeni soil, underscoring how divergent aims have created a dangerous wedge, one that is threatening to boil over even further.

Indeed, a crisis that started as an attempt to defeat the Iran-backed Houthis has turned into a collision over Yemen’s future governance and control of its energy-rich regions, making the conflict more intractable and more dangerous. In effect, Riyadh now interprets the STC’s moves and alleged UAE support as a security threat to its own southern border, rather than an asset in the fight against what it long saw as the Iran-backed Houthis.

This unravelling of Saudi–UAE cooperation shouldn’t be dismissed as a local power struggle. It reflects a broader pattern in which military........

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