Desert Duel: Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s Struggle for Gulf Supremacy |
Desert Duel: Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s Struggle for Gulf Supremacy
For years, Saudi Arabia and the UAE appeared as twin pillars of a new Arab order—coordinating in Yemen, aligning against Islamists, and projecting confidence from the Gulf to the Horn of Africa. Today, that façade is cracking.
Where the Rift is Visible
The most visible rupture emerged in Yemen in late 2025, when Saudi military pressure reportedly compelled Emirati forces to withdraw from key positions. Both states had entered the conflict in 2015 as part of a Saudi-led coalition against the Houthi movement. Yet by 2019, the UAE had significantly scaled back its formal military presence, even as it strengthened ties with southern separatists grouped under the Southern Transitional Council (STC). The STC’s ambitions frequently clashed with forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government, which remained backed by Riyadh.
The divergence was not merely tactical. Abu Dhabi’s strategy centered on securing influence over strategic ports such as Aden and consolidating its footprint along Yemen’s southern coastline—moves consistent with its broader maritime doctrine. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, remained formally committed to preserving Yemen’s territorial unity under a central authority it could shape and influence.
Tensions escalated when the STC recently extended its control into the Hadhramaut and Mahra governorates. For Riyadh, the move threatened to entrench fragmentation and undermine its preferred political settlement. The Saudi response forced an Emirati pullback, marking a dramatic shift in what had once been portrayed as seamless coordination. Yet Yemen is only one arena in a widening contest.
In Sudan, the rivalry is more nuanced but no........