Madagascar’s political instability reflects not a local governance failure, but a structural collision between resource scarcity, strategic geography, and intensifying great-power competition in a tightening global system.

This dual importance, both material and spatial, positions Madagascar at the intersection of contemporary geopolitical forces. The developments on the island reflect broader dynamics observable throughout the Global South, though with particular clarity. While formal sovereignty persists, effective autonomy is increasingly limited by external interests driven primarily by logistics, supply security, and long-term strategic positioning rather than ideology. In effect, there is a resurgence of extractive competition reminiscent of nineteenth-century practices targeting the world’s fourth-largest island.

Scarcity as the Primary Driver

The defining condition of the current global order is not ideological polarization but material constraint. Demand for strategic resources has risen sharply as states pursue electrification, digitalization, military modernization, and the energy transition, while extraction has become more costly, environmentally contested, and politically risky. Materials once considered peripheral—graphite, lithium, cobalt—have become central to industrial and defense planning. Madagascar is the world’s second-largest producer of graphite, which China, India, Germany, and the United States purchase. Japan and South Korea import roughly a quarter and a third of their nickel from Madagascar, respectively.

Madagascar’s resource profile, therefore, attracts sustained attention from multiple external actors simultaneously. This attention is not inherently destabilizing, but it becomes so when layered onto limited institutional capacity and asymmetric bargaining power. Investment inflows, extraction contracts, and infrastructure projects reshape domestic political incentives, often faster than governance structures can adapt.

Comparable patterns are visible in Venezuela, where hydrocarbon wealth has long entangled domestic politics with external pressure, sanctions, and strategic rivalry. Likewise, Greenland has emerged from geopolitical obscurity due to its rare earth potential and Arctic accessibility. In each case, scarcity magnifies attention, and attention magnifies instability—not because of moral failure, but........

© New Eastern Outlook