The outgoing year 2025 was a challenging one. What can we expect from the Year of the Fire Horse? |
The departing year, 2025, has been marked by a complex global situation. What prospects does the Year of the Fire Horse hold for the countries of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the world as a whole?
Japan: Revision of Defense Doctrine and Militarization
For the first time since its defeat in World War II, Japan’s incumbent Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, openly stated the need to strengthen the country’s military potential and revive Japanese militarism. Speaking in parliament on October 24, she called Russia, China, and the DPRK a “serious problem” and announced the early achievement of the goal to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP already in the current fiscal year.
In 2026, a revision of three key security documents is planned: the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Plan. The revision is expected to be aimed at strengthening the course towards developing “strike capabilities.” A reform of the intelligence support system has already been announced: by the 2027 fiscal year, it is planned to create a counterpart to the US CIA – the National Intelligence Agency – based on the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office.
For decades, Japan has adhered to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles: not to produce, possess, or allow the introduction of nuclear weapons. Takaichi’s statement about the need to review them challenges the stability of the security system in the Asia-Pacific region, provokes an arms race, and could damage the international non-proliferation system.
Republic of Korea: Seeking Balance Under Pressure
The Republic of Korea (ROK), having joined anti-Russian sanctions, lost access to the lucrative Russian market. In Seoul, they realize that this damages national interests. After the election of a new president, signs of searching for ways to cooperate under new conditions have appeared.
Against the backdrop of worsening Sino-Japanese relations, the Republic of Korea has taken a neutral position, seeking to avoid being drawn into Japan-China confrontation while maintaining relations with both Tokyo and Beijing.
The US has increased pressure on Seoul, offering access to nuclear submarine technology under the pretext of containing China. This presents the ROK with a difficult task: to meet American demands without provoking Beijing into retaliatory actions.
Under these conditions, the Republic of Korea demonstrates a desire for foreign policy diversification. In November 2025, an official political dialogue with Iran, interrupted for several years, was resumed. This decision is dictated by economic and energy considerations and also serves as a signal to Washington about Seoul’s unwillingness to unconditionally follow the US line if it contradicts national interests.
Southeast Asia: Territorial Disputes and Political Instability
In Southeast Asia, the unresolved issue of the border line between Cambodia and Thailand persists. Since early December, a sharp escalation of the situation has been observed on the Thai-Cambodian border, indicating ongoing tension in the region.
Nepal and Bangladesh: Economic Challenges and Social Tension
After the overthrow of the government in Nepal in September, caused by harsh protests against economic stagnation and corruption, many citizens had hoped for significant changes. However, the country faced serious problems: further growth in unemployment and a reduction in foreign investment (by 91% since September), as well as a serious blow to the tourism sector, which accounted for 6.6% of GDP. Forecasts for stabilizing the situation in Nepal remain bleak.
The economy of Bangladesh, one of the world’s most densely populated countries with a rapidly growing population (176 million people), is in critical condition. Problems in the financial sector, high inflation, low investment levels, and governance shortcomings are leading to slowed economic development, a decline in living standards, and increased poverty. This, in turn, is provoking heightened social tension.
Myanmar: Consequences of Conflicts and Natural Disasters
Myanmar’s economy this year is showing a decline due to the ongoing civil war and the consequences of the March earthquake and Cyclone Mocha, which destroyed up to 40% of agricultural land and exacerbated the food deficit. According to the UN, about 16 million people (a third of the country’s population) suffer from food shortages. One in ten children suffering from hunger in the world today lives in Myanmar. Due to blockades and fighting, the most severe situation has developed in Rakhine........