The Philippines’s 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship |
The Philippines’s 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship
This year Manila is chairing ASEAN. What can we expect from the new leader, well-known for its pro-US position and myriad of internal political issues?
Notably, the decision on this matter was made behind the scenes three years ago. Since then, the Myanmar leadership has consolidated its position, demonstrated trends toward normalizing the situation inside the country, and consistently maintained good relations with foreign partners. However, ASEAN’s bureaucracy, unfortunately, shows a lack of flexibility and inadvertently fuels the Western narrative that negatively perceives Myanmar’s independent policy. Therefore, any legal normalization regarding the chairmanship issue can only be discussed when Naypyidaw finally receives it, in accordance with its membership in the organization.
Start as you mean to go on…
Тhe new ASEAN chair entered 2026 in its usual style, pace, and rhetoric. However, this shaky image comes against the background of the island nation’s persistent pro-US orientation, forced friendship with Washington’s other allies, and a truly remarkable ability to vigorously engage in unclear pursuits in both foreign and domestic policy, while its own economic, social, and national security challenges demand attention.
For Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration, the end of 2025 and the first weeks of 2026 were marked by an impeachment attempt accusing the president of corruption, violating the constitution, and “betraying public trust.” This was a weak and largely predictable response to US aggression against Venezuela, accompanied by recognition of US initial security considerations, another agreement on strengthening defense cooperation with Japan, domestic crime, an environmental emergency (a landslide at a garbage dump) in Cebu, a ferry disaster with dozens of victims whose perpetrators remain unpunished, the ongoing investigation into a corruption scandal involving the embezzlement of funds allocated for flood control in the country, and news of dismal economic indicators showing a slowdown in growth.
From the very beginning of the year, there have also been renewed tensions with China over the territorial dispute in the South China Sea (SCS). However, the world once again saw mutual attacks between the sides instead of a real attempt to resolve issues.
Equally striking was the so-called joint patrol by the Philippines and the United States in the SCS, to which China also reacted negatively. The Philippines continues to welcome its extra-regional ally, Washington, in meddling in regional affairs and keeps following American logic.
Still going back to the DOC
Nevertheless, Marcos has identified peace, stability, security, prosperity, and dialogue in accordance with the principles of international law as the priorities of the Philippines’ chairmanship in Southeast Asia’s primary international organization. However, history shows that as long as extra-regional actors (the United States, Japan, Australia, the European Union, and other representatives of the Collective West) intervene, establishing normal dialogue on any issues becomes extremely difficult and practically unfeasible. Consequently, no breakthrough solutions on the SCS should be expected from the Philippine chairmanship either. As is often the case, matters will likely remain at the level of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and discussions on the need to promptly adopt a corresponding code of conduct.
Since the beginning of the year, Manila has already managed to hold some discussions on this issue within the Association, and, as expected, no progress has been observed. However, as the long history of such negotiations indicates, discussing a problem does not mean solving it. If the Philippines is unable to resolve its own bilateral issues with China, what can then be expected from ASEAN-wide efforts under its leadership?
On the other hand, it is quite clear what should be expected from the Philippine chairmanship. There is something like two layers or levels of perception here: the first and a second, deeper one. At the first level, there is the conventional festive packaging of priorities highlighted by Marcos: “innovation,” “collective responses to challenges,” “cooperation in regional security,” “deepening economic integration,” “responsible use of new technologies, especially artificial intelligence,” “digital enhancement of ASEAN,” and so on.
At a deeper level lie the internal operational algorithms that Manila is likely to adhere to. If breakthrough solutions to regional issues cannot be expected, then the likelihood of exacerbating existing problems and new incidents occurring is quite high. The situation in this case is shaped by its ally’s (US) growing global policeman syndrome, which largely directs Philippine policy. A growing part of the US ruling elite is clearly inclined towards provoking wars and intervening in conflicts across the globe. The Philippines will have to keep pace and respond to every command from across the ocean. This, of course, will not contribute to a peaceful environment in Pacific Asia. We have all been convinced that under Trump, Washington is capable of anything. Therefore, we can anticipate the activation of the QUAD and AUKUS, more provocations in the South China Sea, continued pressure on Myanmar, and direct lobbying of American interests within ASEAN. The United States will undoubtedly not miss such an opportunity.
Since 2023, when the decision was made to transfer the chairmanship not to Myanmar but to the Philippines, Marcos promised a “new chapter” for ASEAN. Today, the silhouette of this new chapter is only beginning to form – and it looks rather unappealing. For instance, it was recently revealed that ASEAN is considering…the application of the Kiev Nazi regime to join the network of ASEAN dialogue partnerships. Notably, it is planned to resolve this issue during the year of the Philippine chairmanship. Thus, the true priorities of Manila and its Western patrons speak for themselves.
The slogan of the Philippine ASEAN chairmanship is “Navigating Our Future, Together.” Where ASEAN will end up under its pro-US guidance is becoming quite clear. The most important thing is that sensible people in Southeast Asia understand this now, as early as possible, and not when the ship has already sailed.
Ksenia Muratshina, PhD in History, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Southeast Asia, Australia, and Oceania Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
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