The ongoing “bargaining of actions” between Ethiopia and its opponents could have diametrically opposite consequences: from direct escalation to moving the dispute towards a constructive search for compromise.

“Any steps, even symbolic ones, can have decisive impacts on the array of accumulated contradictions.”

A defense cooperation agreement, military bases and an ambassador appointment: what’s next?

By the end of the summer, after a brief lull, the confrontation, which is broadly determined by Ethiopia’s ambitions to gain direct access to the sea, took a new turn. In a short period of time—just over a month—several significant events occurred at once, effectively transferring the conflict from a purely political to a military-political channel.

Shortly after news of Somaliland units being sent for training in Ethiopia emerged—unequivocal confirmation of deepening contacts between Addis Ababa and Hargeisa—the governments of Somalia and Egypt formally announced the conclusion of a Defense Cooperation Agreement, and a few days later the first batches of Egyptian equipment and weapons were delivered to the port of Mogadishu. In response, according to a number of sources, Ethiopia sent an ambassador to Somaliland, a de facto recognition of the country’s independence, and Ethiopia also began deploying military bases on the border with Somalia. Along with........

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