The Failure of Trump’s Iran Policy: ‘Bad Luck,’ Design, or Happenstance? |
The Failure of Trump’s Iran Policy: ‘Bad Luck,’ Design, or Happenstance?
The Trump administration’s policy toward Iran — accompanied by mixed signals and increased pressure — is leading to a diplomatic deadlock, raising the risk of a large-scale conflict, and undermining confidence in American diplomacy.
Mixed messages, grandiose public claims, and a naval blockade that undercuts talks have turned peaceful diplomacy into a farce. The result: US credibility is shredded, negotiations are stalled, and a fragile cease-fire is teetering on the brink of collapse—exactly the kind of mess that could make a short war drag into a strategic disaster.
“Bad So Far” vs. “Worse to Come”
Applying this to Trump’s foreign policy regarding Iran, especially the prospect of introducing ground troops, the analogy suggests that facing “death” in the movie scenario could be framed as a devastating regional conflict, immense human suffering, and a significant blow to US strategic interests and global stability, mirroring the inevitability and severity of the movie character’s fate, but on a geopolitical scale
The “worse to come” option exposes the potential for a full-scale ground war, followed by the crash of the world’s economy. Foreign wars have historically not worked out well for the United States. The option of “declaring victory and leaving with Trump’s proverbial tail between his legs” may be the best option for the world in general and the US in particular.
Even if a US military victory could be achieved, it would be nominal or fleeting, followed either by a difficult withdrawal, or a prolonged guerilla war, much like the Russian character in the movie who was facing either a quick death or prolonged torture.
Here are just some of Trump’s failures so far, domestic ones too:
1) A failed trade war with China
2) Annexation threats towards Greenland that reaped only indignation and ended in backtracking
3) Pressure on Canada that led to Mark Carney’s victory and brought Ottawa closer to Beijing
4) Congress’s decision to limit the White House’s ability to withdraw troops from Europe
5) The Supreme Court ruling that overturned the tariff war
6) His humiliation........