Simple math: calculating Russia's chances at the 2026 Olympic Games |
There are less than 10 days left until the start of the 2026 Olympic Games in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo. The last Olympic cycle was unique for Russia under conditions of international isolation—easing began too late, and most athletes are going without an international ranking. In this regard, the question arises: are Russian athletes’ chances at the podium realistic or just “neutral”?
Context: The Path to Admission
However, overall, the situation in international sports politics appears more favorable for us than usual. For instance, an interesting precedent occurred in fencing: Raido Mitt, Vice-Chancellor of the Estonian Ministry of Culture for Sports, stated that the country’s position remains unchanged: visas will not be issued to Russian and Belarusian athletes. This year, Estonia was supposed to host the European Fencing Championships. However, the International Fencing Federation (FIE) issued a directive: Estonia had to provide written guarantees for the admission of athletes from Russia and Belarus (the federation had admitted juniors from both countries to international competitions with their national flag and anthem on December 23rd). No written guarantees were provided. Consequently, the tournament was relocated to the French city of Antony and will take place in June with Russian athletes participating. This case demonstrates that the international response and the international sports community are changing. Yes, many organizations like the IIHF (ice hockey) or ISU (figure skating) are still either maintaining silence or making contradictory statements, but the example of the European Championships in Estonia shows that Russian athletes are preparing for a full-fledged return to the international arena.
Which Russian athletes are going to the Olympic Games?
On January 28,........