On January 19, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced snap elections for the Lower House of the Diet on February 8. The PM hopes to secure more seats for her coalition and consolidate a solid majority in the House.

As Takaichi herself has stated, the stakes in this election are her future as Prime Minister; she wants to gauge the public’s confidence in her leadership of Japan. The decision to hold the elections comes amid Sanae Takaichi’s high approval rating: in December 2025, it (based on surveys from eight organizations) ranged from 67% to 75.5%, while her disapproval rating was quite low, averaging no higher than 20%.

According to Professor Tamura Kotaro, Takaichi aims to follow Shinzo Abe’s example: she gains popularity through hawkish rhetoric, leading her party to victory in the elections, after which the PM adopts a more moderate stance, attempting to balance multiple interests. Tamura Kotaro suggests that this is precisely Takaichi’s calculation: after a successful election, she will compromise with domestic opponents and attempt to reconcile with other countries, particularly China (although a quick resolution to the crisis with the latter, in our view, is unlikely, given the developments in foreign policy and the actions of the Japanese PM).

Either way, in this article, we will assess the country’s political forces’ readiness for the elections and speculate on whether Sanae Takaichi’s gamble will pay off.

The Largest Coalition Aims to Expand

Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Renewal Party) are in a coalition that is the largest political force in both Diet Houses. However, the coalition’s position is tenuous: it lacks a majority in the Upper House by five seats and has only a one-seat majority in the Lower House.

The LDP’s minimum plan would be to gain a few more seats (around 10-30) in coalition with the Ishin no Kai for a more stable majority; the maximum plan (specifically for the LDP) would be to secure 34 seats, in which case a coalition with the Ishin no Kai would be unnecessary.

A rather challenging scenario would be for........

© New Eastern Outlook