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BC: A New Middle East: An Assessment

14 1 0
12.11.2019

BC stands for NEO’s Banned Classic. This article was originally published by our journal on 05.08.15. For some reason, this article is missing from Google search results. Since this article remains pretty relevant to those geopolitical events that are taking place on the geopolitical stage today, we deem it possible to present it to our readers once again. Should it go missing again, you may be confident that you will see it republished by NEO once more, should it still remain relevant by that time.

Developments in Syria and Iraq are in an dynamic phase where day to day developments can distract from the assessment of probable midi- to long-term developments. Operand factors in this assessment are Russian – Turkish relations, a redirection of Russian Middle East policy, the accord on Iran’s nuclear energy program, the Kurdish discourse, and long-term US strategy with regard to the wider Middle East.

The Syrian government’s control over the nation has suffered substantial setbacks since early 2015. The recent establishment of a safe zone in northern Syria – equivalent to a no-fly-zone – in Syria along the Turkish border has challenged Damascus’ capability to provide air support for ground operations against insurgents of the Islamic State, Al-Nusrah and other insurgents.

US-led air-strikes against Islamic State are largely displacing ISIS towards Damascus and Baghdad. US and Turkish air-strikes in Syria have provided a safe-haven for the separatist Kurdish YPG. Predominantly Turkish air-strikes against militants of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Iraq, on the other hand, are keeping vital supply routes for the Islamic State open while PKK fighters are dislodged and have to seek strategic depth in the predominantly Kurdish north – northwest of Syria.

Along with the United States and Turkey’s policies with regard to Kurdish autonomy and the eventual establishment of a Kurdish State in Northern Iraq, these policies and strategies are largely consistent with long-established plans to create a Kurdish federation of a Kurdish State with breathing straw access to the Mediterranean. Considering that the various Kurdish parties and paramilitary organizations don’t have converging policies, strategies, aims, and for that sake regional and international........

© New Eastern Outlook