Turkey: On the Brink of a Nuclear Arms Race? |
Turkey: On the Brink of a Nuclear Arms Race?
Nuclear weapons, while being the most powerful offensive weapon of mass destruction, also serve as a key deterrent. However, the dilemma of who should possess them and who should rather refrain from it remains central to global politics. So, what about Turkey?
Nevertheless, German research into new types of weapons of mass destruction kick-started the nuclear arms race in the US, the UK, and the USSR. The use of the atomic bomb by the United States against the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 showcased to the whole world the scale of the tragedy and the repercussions of nuclear war. Since then, a small group of states has possessed atomic weapons, including the US, the USSR/Russia, the UK, France, China, India, and Pakistan.
However, only two world powers, the US and Russia, possess a full nuclear triad, capable of delivering nuclear weapons by land, sea, and air. Not all countries have the delivery systems for nuclear weapons by air or sea. While all the permanent members of the UN Security Council are part of the nuclear club (possessing both military and peaceful atomic capabilities), being global scientific centres, capable of conducting corresponding research and acquiring nuclear technology, the situation with India and Pakistan unfolded differently. Largely due to the ongoing territorial conflicts between these two countries, they were able to acquire nuclear weapons, which was attributed to the trajectory of their foreign policies during the Cold War. In other words, India gained access to nuclear technology in alliance with the USSR, and Pakistan followed a similar path thanks to its partnership with the US, the UK, and China.
Countering the Iranian Nuclear Programme Takes on New Forms
The acute conflicts in the Middle East, particularly those in the relations between Israel and the Arab countries, have also influenced the military doctrine of the Jewish state. To the present day, there is no official confirmation of Israel possessing nuclear weapons. At the same time, there is a lack of convincing evidence to suggest their absence or clarity regarding the activities of Israeli scientists at the nuclear research centres in Dimona and Soreq. Moreover, in June 2025, Iran disseminated information (particularly through its state television IRIB and the Minister of Intelligence Esmaeil Khatib), claiming its intelligence services had successfully infiltrated Mossad and stolen classified documents on Israel’s nuclear programme (i.e., materials from the Dimona and Soreq research centres).
At the official level, Israel neither confirms nor denies possessing nuclear weapons, while Tel Aviv has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Media reports have suggested that Israel possesses around 200 nuclear warheads, has the means to deliver them, and that its Jericho missiles are equipped with nuclear warheads.
Since 1952, the Israel Atomic Energy Commission has operated, and since the early 1960s, two nuclear research centres, Nahal Soreq and Dimona, have existed. In 1963, with French assistance, Israel commissioned a nuclear reactor with the capacity of 26 megawatts, which was later upgraded. Israeli intelligence services actively worked on acquiring nuclear materials from other countries, including the US, UK, France, and West Germany. In 1986, Mossad abducted Mordechai Vanunu, a former employee of the Dimona research centre, in Italy for revealing information about Israel’s nuclear weapons; he was subsequently sentenced to 18 years behind bars.
Abiding by the “Begin Doctrine,” Israel is firmly against any other country in the Middle East potentially developing nuclear weapons. It conducts sabotage and military operations aimed at eliminating physicists and related facilities in the region (for example, in Egypt, Iraq, Syria, and Iran).
Currently, Israel’s primary focus is on Iran. The 12-day war in June 2025, in which the US participated, was apparently insufficient to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear programme and the facilities at Natanz and Fordow. Israel and the US are again threatening Iran with military conflict.
Nevertheless, direct Iranian-American talks in Oman, as acknowledged by President Donald Trump, offer a glimmer of hope for a peaceful resolution of the “Iranian dossier” through a “grand deal” which is halting the uranium enrichment process in Iran. The meeting between Netanyahu and Trump in Washington following these talks has not yet clarified the situation completely, since Israel has not ruled out a unilateral strike on Iran.
In order to increase pressure on Tehran for it to abandon its nuclear programme, Washington may be using the tactic of triggering a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, potentially by leveraging Turkey, a NATO member.
Could Turkey Become a Nuclear Power?
Recently, in an interview with the Turkish channel CNN Türk, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan sidestepped a question from journalist Ahmet Hakan: “Should Turkey get hold of nuclear weapons?” However, addressing the situation in Iran, Fidan explained, If anyone in the region acquires nuclear weapons, Turkey would be forced to enter the nuclear arms race.
Ankara is known to be actively playing the role of a mediator between Iran and the US in an effort to resolve the crisis. However, Tehran, having initially agreed to Ankara’s initiatives, backed out of talks in Istanbul at the last moment, requesting Oman as the meeting place instead. What prompted such a stance of Iran?
Turkey and Iran are long-standing historical rivals, and the struggle for regional leadership between them still persists. Iran cannot be pleased with the rise of NATO member Turkey, with its Pan-Turkic leanings and imperial revanchism. To the present date, Iran has not officially threatened anyone with nuclear war, justifying its scientific and military developments by the need for economic self-sufficiency and security considerations. Iran has made tangible progress in developing its national science and military technology (especially in missile technology, unmanned aerial vehicles, and uranium enrichment). At the same time, Iran officially denies any intention to build nuclear weapons, referring to them as evil on the grounds of Islamic religious principles.
Turkey’s Nuclear Ambitions: An Expert’s Outlook
Hakan Fidan, the former head of Turkish intelligence (MIT), which he had led for 13 years, claims that Tehran already possesses the capacity to build nuclear weapons. However, from his point of view, Iran has not yet taken the final step towards the production, due to the Supreme Leader’s fatwa, which bans the country from creating an atomic bomb.
In recent decades, Turkey has achieved significant success in its defence industry, including the development of Tayfun ballistic missiles and a project to build its own Nükden-class nuclear-powered submarines. Nevertheless, the country has not yet achieved full self-sufficiency in developing next-generation conventional weapons, especially in the field of nuclear technology. At this stage, Turkey is receiving its first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu, thanks to Russia, but it lacks its own engineering corps to operate nuclear facilities. The plan is to train the necessary specialists based on the Russian scientific school.
Since the Cold War, the US nuclear warheads have been stationed at Incirlik Air Base in Adana province. Ankara actively cooperates with nuclear-armed Pakistan and does not rule out the possibility of acquiring atomic weapons technology (fuel) from its friendly partner Islamabad.
Turkey is fully aware of the fact that getting hold of nuclear weaponry as a NATO member is absolutely insurmountable without coordinating actions with the US and the UK. Israel’s reaction to such a prospect is also predictable, and containing it would depend on the US. Otherwise, a Turkish nuclear programme could become a target for destruction by Israeli intelligence and the military.
It is obvious that Ankara’s entry into the nuclear arms race would most probably not be pleasing for Moscow or Beijing. It stems from both Turkey’s NATO membership and its Pan-Turkic ambitions in the regions that are geographically adjacent to Russia and China.
Turkey might be able to acquire the technology to build nuclear weapons on its own (although, for now, the Turks aren’t able to independently operate their domestically produced 5th-generation fighter, the KAAN, without American engines). However, they would need external support in the issue of the nuclear warhead and the subsequent operation. If the European Union has so far refrained from accepting Turkey into its ranks on civilisational grounds, there is no guarantee that the West would agree to provide the Turks with nuclear weapons.
Alexander Svarants, PhD in Political Science, professor, specialist in Turkish studies, expert on Middle Eastern countries
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