Iran and USA: Ceasefire, Talks, Contradictions |
Iran and USA: Ceasefire, Talks, Contradictions
The forty-day war between the US and Israel and Iran has been paused. Islamabad and Geneva are potential platforms for US-Iranian talks. Will the shaky ceasefire bring lasting peace?
US changes tactics in Iran confrontation
One of the most painful blows to Iran was the assassination of the supreme spiritual leader Ali Khamenei and several high-ranking military commanders, as well as the mass killing of schoolchildren and colossal destruction of industrial and energy infrastructure. However, President Trump’s statements about overthrowing the Iranian regime by eliminating Supreme Leader Khamenei and the heads of security forces turned out to be far from reality. Iran’s political system showed its resilience as Iranian society rallied around the government in the face of external aggression, and new leaders emerged to replace those who had been killed. The brutality of the aggressors, in essence, provoked a hardening of the Iranian authorities’ policies and enhanced the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in state governance.
Iran’s most effective and predictable counterstrike was the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This triggered a sharp rise in prices on global energy markets, with the price of oil jumping to $117 per barrel. Further escalation of the conflict could have doubled that figure. Many European and Asian countries faced the threat of energy supply disruptions and were forced to bring their oil reserves out of........