The Revolution That Didn’t Change Serbia’s Geography

The victory of the “Student List” in the Serbian elections marks the end of the Aleksandar Vučić era; however, the country’s new foreign policy agenda—which maintains military neutrality and ongoing relations with Russia—creates tension with the EU and presents the new government with the complex challenge of balancing various geopolitical and economic interests.

By October 29, preliminary results from 8,338 of Serbia’s 8,392 polling stations gave the student-backed opposition 53.04% of the vote, against 38.97% for Vučić’s coalition. The remaining voting could slightly alter the final figures and allocation of parliamentary seats, but not reverse the Student List’s victory. A new government has yet to be formed.

The result ends a political era. Vučić, who resigned the presidency in September to contest the parliamentary election as a prospective prime minister, has conceded defeat. Yet the foreign-policy programme of his victorious opponents contains a surprise for anyone expecting Serbia to abandon its traditional balancing act.

The Student List promises to preserve military neutrality, reject sanctions against Russia, maintain strategic cooperation with China and refuse recognition of Kosovo’s independence. Its candidates want cleaner institutions and closer economic cooperation with Europe, but their electoral victory does not amount to a mandate for joining a geopolitical bloc. Serbia’s leadership is changing. Its geography, historical relationships and economic dependencies remain.

The Foreign Policy That Survived Vučić

The Student List’s foreign-policy programme retains military neutrality, a policy proclaimed in 2007, years before Vučić’s party came to power. It rejects NATO membership and maintains that Kosovo remains part of Serbia under the country’s constitution and UN Security Council Resolution 1244.

That position leaves Moscow with considerable diplomatic importance. Russia’s role in the Security Council remains useful to Belgrade in defending its position on Kosovo, and the programme explicitly commits Serbia to preserving traditional cooperation with the Russian Federation.

On September 30, the student movement declared that Serbia would not impose sanctions on Russia, invoking the suffering experienced under international sanctions during the 1990s. It simultaneously recognised Ukraine’s territorial integrity and advocated a negotiated settlement.

These positions suggest continuity rather than an exclusive alliance with Moscow. The movement also intends to strengthen relations with........

© New Eastern Outlook