The US-led operation in Caracas on January 3, 2026, resulting in the capture and removal of President Nicolás Maduro, is more than a Latin American crisis. It is a geopolitical earthquake that exposes a core truth: sovereignty is disposable when it obstructs a superpower’s interests.

For Central Europe, this precedent carries immediate and grave implications. If a sitting president can be taken by force, what guarantees remain for smaller states? The operation—airstrikes, the seizure of Maduro, and the instant claim on Venezuela’s oil—sent a message as old as geopolitics itself: power dictates terms.

Central European Perspective: A Lesson in Conditional Sovereignty

The nations of Central Europe have every reason to view this event with profound alarm. Venezuela is not merely about oil wealth; it is equally about its strategic pivot towards a Russia-China axis, which directly challenges the geopolitical architecture Washington seeks to maintain. The United States acted to break those ties. Thus, the urgent question for Warsaw, Budapest, Prague, and Bratislava becomes: What happens if a Central European state pursues “too” deep an economic or energy partnership with actors Washington opposes? The abduction in Caracas demonstrates that sovereignty is conditional—revocable by force if it challenges a hegemon’s design. This is a direct warning against blind trust in any distant protector.

Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic have borne significant costs as loyal allies—through military aid, sanctions regimes, and diplomatic alignment. Yet this loyalty buys no insurance. History, now underscored by Caracas, shows that for mid-sized powers, alliances and norms are tools for the strong, not shields for the weak. Compliance is no guarantee of security.

Historical Context and the Pattern of Intervention

The Caracas abduction fits a familiar pattern. From Iraq to Libya to Syria, US-led interventions have shown that international law bends before power and strategic need. Pretexts change, but the goal of asserting dominance remains constant. Europe has often played the role of junior partner, lending support while ceding control.

Central Europe knows this dynamic. EU and NATO mandates often........

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