Opinion | The Russia-China Axis That Has Made Iran So Difficult For Trump |
Mar 20, 2026 17:30 pm IST
Opinion | Is Chinese And Russian Intel Helping Iran 'Behind The Scenes'?
Iran's successful hitting of US military bases and energy infrastructure in the Gulf suggests that Russian help is much more than what Trump described as "a bit".
Naresh Kaushik Naresh Kaushik Columnist
Naresh Kaushik Columnist
Earlier this month, Donald Trump described the United States and Israel's ongoing war with Iran as a "little excursion" that he said would finish pretty quickly. "We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil," Trump told Republican lawmakers in Florida. But the war has already gone into its third week, with Iran appearing to be setting its tone, course and even duration.
There is no doubt that Iran has suffered significant losses. Its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was assassinated, along with over 40 senior officials, on the first day of the war. The National Security Advisor, Ali Larijani, was killed on Monday, and the Intelligence Minister, Ismail Khatib, a day later, in Israel's policy of decapitating Iran's regime with the aim of inciting an uprising. Khamenei's son and the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba, has not been seen in public since his appointment amid reports that he has been seriously injured. Relentless American and Israeli attacks have destroyed a large part, if not most, of Iran's military infrastructure. Israel has also inflicted major damage on Iran's oil and gas facilities in an attempt to cripple its economy.
But these setbacks have not deterred Iran, which has escalated the war with attacks not only on Israel and US diplomatic and military installations but also on civilian targets across the Gulf, including airports, hotels, and energy infrastructure. Trump now says he is surprised by Iran's retaliation, despite his military commanders' warning him beforehand of the exact scenario. On Tuesday, Trump's top counterterrorism official, Joe Kent, resigned over the war, urging the president to "reverse course." He claimed that Trump "started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby."
The Russia And China Hand
If you look at their public statements, Moscow and Beijing have only provided diplomatic support to Iran, condemned the invasion and the killing of its head of state, the Supreme Leader Khamenei. They have also called for de-escalation and even criticised Iran for attacking Gulf countries. But their support for Tehran runs much deeper.
US media have been reporting that Russia has been providing intelligence to Iran about military targets. Last week, Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin might be helping Iran "a bit". But Iran's successful hitting of US military bases and energy infrastructure in the Gulf suggests that Russian help is much more than what Trump described as "a bit".
Russia is reported to have provided Iran with the precise locations of US warships and aircraft operating in the Middle East. Russia's Kanopus-V satellite gives Iran round-the-clock images of American assets and other targets in the region. An important target reportedly provided by Moscow to Tehran was the precise location of a US military base in Kuwait, after which an Iranian drone killed six American soldiers.
Moscow is attempting to replicate what the US has done over the past four years in the Ukraine conflict. The Ukrainian military has successfully targeted precise Russian positions and killed thousands of its soldiers after intelligence provided by the United States.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a US broadcaster, MS NOW, on Sunday that both Russia and China are helping Iran militarily. "We have had close cooperation in the past, which still continues, and that includes military cooperation as well," said Araghchi.
The Chinese Military Assistance
China's military support for Iran is also significant, although more discreet, as it seeks to keep good relations with other Gulf states. Over the past decade, Beijing has enhanced its collaboration with Iran in missile technology, satellite and space programmes, intelligence exchange, cybersecurity, and electronic warfare.
In the days leading up to the current war, several reports indicated that China was engaged in direct arms sales to Iran of offensive drones. It finalised a deal to sell supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles to Iran, though the two sides had not agreed on a delivery date. Some reports say the missiles were delivered, though they have not been confirmed.
During the first week of the war, two state-owned Iranian vessels left China's Gaolan Port for Iran and are believed to be transporting sodium perchlorate, a key precursor used in solid rocket fuel for missiles, according to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
In 2021, China granted Iran full military access to its BeiDou satellite navigation system, according to the commission that monitors Chinese activities and reports to the US Congress. It is not clear, however, the extent to which Iran uses BeiDou.
Cyber Warfare and Oil
Beijing has also helped Iran in developing its cyberwar capabilities, which could pose a serious threat to Israel and the United States. Israel has been aware of that and has managed to infiltrate some of the Iranian networks and kill dozens of cyber experts and other scientists. But it is not possible to destroy Iran's entire cyber network.
China, Iran's biggest trading partner, which purchases over 80% of Iran's oil, has also helped Iran bypass US sanctions and supplied dual-use equipment, similar to its sales to Russia, to support its conflict with Ukraine. China is the first country in the current conflict whose oil tankers Iran has allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Long-term Partnerships
Moscow has been Iran's defence partners for over 30 years. Russia started selling its Soviet-era defence and civil nuclear technologies in the 1990s to Iran, which needed to rebuild its defence and economy after the devastating Iran-Iraq war between 1980 and 1988. Russia sold aircraft and air defence systems, though in 2010, it decided not to deliver the S-300 long-range air defence system after US pressure.
But Russia didn't stop the military supplies to Iran entirely and even developed a strong partnership with the Assad regime, along with Iran, in Syria after the 2015 civil war. Russia and China also helped Iran to build ballistic missiles. Tehran supplied a large number of these missiles to its proxies, like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, to be used against Israel.
China has also played a significant role in Iran's ballistic missile programme. In February 2025, Beijing supplied Tehran with 1,000 tonnes of sodium perchlorate, a solid rocket fuel component. That was sufficient to power between 200 and 300 Haj Qasem and Kheibar Shekan missiles, according to experts.
Iran has developed its powerful Shahed drones over the past ten years, using raw materials supplied by China. Thousands of these drones were sold by Iran to Russia, which used them successfully against Ukraine. Subsequently, Russia improved the design and began mass production. These drones have been so effective that the US-supplied air defence system in Ukraine has struggled to shoot them down. Even the United States has copied the Iranian design and is now producing similar drones.
Iran has been using these drones and missiles to hit US, Israeli, and Gulf targets in the current war. Israel and the US claim that 90% of Iran's missile stockpile has been destroyed or used up. However, Iran's retaliatory missile strikes on Saudi and Qatari energy installations on Wednesday demonstrated that Iran still possesses a substantial number of missiles. Iran's drone manufacturing facilities are reportedly still operating at secret locations.
Russia and China are pleased to see America's anti-missile systems and other military equipment being depleted. The US has moved its military assets from the Indo-Pacific to the Gulf, which benefits China. Moscow may also be glad that the US is engaged in the Middle East and cannot send air defence and other arms to Ukraine, at least for now. The war has also allowed Moscow to profit financially, as oil prices have risen and the US has been forced to lift sanctions on Russian oil sales to increase global supplies.
Both Beijing and Moscow would perhaps like the war to continue for longer, which would force the US to remain engaged in the Middle East rather than deal with any Russian or Chinese threat. America's Asia-Pacific partners and Ukraine are watching the events in the Gulf with frustration. Its European allies are also unhappy, as they would like Trump to focus on Ukraine.
China's military planners are monitoring the conflict closely, as they have done in Ukraine over the past four years. They are watching how the US military is fighting Iran and what lessons can be learned for a potential future confrontation with the US over Taiwan.
The Iranian Regime Looks Dug In
China is watching the war for another reason. Beijing would not want to see the current Iranian regime collapse and a pro-US government stepping in. Israel's targeting of top leaders could eventually lead to chaos in Iran, which could affect China's energy supplies. A weaker Iran after the war, on the other hand, will suit Beijing and Moscow, as Tehran would be more dependent on them.
The course of the war so far suggests that the Iranian regime is unlikely to collapse anytime soon. Tehran has not only endured the massive US and Israeli bombing campaign but has also managed to escalate and harm its enemies. Trump is no longer describing the war as a "little excursion", although he still wants to end it soon. Moscow and Beijing have ensured that Iran can sustain the conflict for much longer than the US President had anticipated.
(Naresh Kaushik is a former editor at the BBC News and Associated Press and is based in London)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author