‘The Venezuela Option Does Not Exist in Iran’ |
Back on March 8, my old traveling companion Kyle Orton wrote about the unlikelihood of a Venezuela scenario in Iran, and how it was unlikely that any Tehran version of Delcy Rodriguez was waiting in the wings, ready to steer Iran into a more conciliatory and less anti-American direction.
A Venezuela scenario in Iran relies on the idea that the U.S. can keep killing the current leadership cadre until it reaches down to a layer of people, especially in the military, who are willing to come to terms with the U.S. and rule according to its key interests. The problem with this is that the Islamic Revolution is an ideological movement which from inception had hostility to the United States and the broader West as core elements. UANI’s Kasra Aarabi put it well: “The IRGC is a highly radicalised and indoctrinated force. So the idea of them switching sides … is unlikely.” The scale of what is required to neutralise the Revolution as a factor in Iranian life, and get to a point where people amenable to the U.S. are able to take power stably, given the vitality of the Revolution’s votaries and the depth of its ruling structure, amounts to a thoroughgoing regime change. In short, the Venezuela option does not exist in Iran, and the implications for the possibility of regime change are not positive. The Islamic Revolution has only ruled in Yemen for a little over a decade and it has shown itself to be immensely durable, able to withstand internal........