There’s something of a contradiction in what we are seeing in Iran right now. On the one hand, this looks like an offensive aimed at eliminating the revolutionary Islamic Republic regime. Indeed, as I’ve argued, there’s not really much point to all of this if we intend to leave Iran under the governance of the same jihadist regime, just with different faces.

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Terrorism, pursuit of nuclear weapons, war on neighbors, the oppression of the people, alliance with American enemies such as Russia and China and the organization of the entire state around the destruction of Israel and permanent war with the United States — all of these are so deeply embedded in the Islamic Republic regime, with its mullahcracy and its IRGC-centered police state that anything less will be pointless. On the other hand, there’s no sign that we intend to send American ground troops into Iran.

Certainly, we give signs of purposely hobbling the regime. Khamenei is dead. The leadership is, as Noah writes, apparently decapitated.

John Podhoretz argues that this leaves the regime ripe to be toppled, without toppling it ourselves:

A regime-change war would effectively require us to go in on the ground in Tehran, take out the mullahs, and announce that a regency of some sort that would then lead to a new republic. Instead, this war is designed to take out the command, control, communications, and military abilities of the regime and leave Khamenei and his demonic underlings denuded, undefended, alone, and astoundingly weak—to leave their regime a carcass to be picked over rather than continue to exist as a punch-drunk boxer who can rise from the canvas and try to keep swinging. Once we’re done, it would be quick work for Iranians themselves to kick the mullahs to the curb.

A regime-change war would effectively require us to go in on the ground in Tehran, take out the mullahs, and announce that a regency of some sort that would then lead to a new republic. Instead, this war is designed to take out the command, control, communications, and military abilities of the regime and leave Khamenei and his demonic underlings denuded, undefended, alone, and astoundingly weak—to leave their regime a carcass to be picked over rather than continue to exist as a punch-drunk boxer who can rise from the canvas and try to keep swinging. Once we’re done, it would be quick work for Iranians themselves to kick the mullahs to the curb.

So, if we are setting the regime up for a death blow, but refuse to deliver it ourselves — who will?

I can’t see the Israelis wanting their fingerprints on a new Iranian government, or committing more than some Special Forces teams on the ground (which we probably have there ourselves). Our Arab allies aren’t going to do it. Russia is otherwise occupied (thankfully). The natural answer is the Iranian opposition.

But while crowds of civilians can protest and unsettle the government, only people with guns can overthrow it and establish a new one.

If we expect that to happen, who are they, and where are they getting those guns? I would expect the U.S. and its allies to prepare the ground for a mission such as this one by arming friendly forces within Iran, yet I’ve seen precious little public discussion or reporting of whether that has been happening. It’s early days, and there are good reasons why such arms shipments would have been highly covert before the bombs started flying. But our war plan relies upon somebody else finishing the job on the ground, we had better have given some thought to who and how.

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