Randall Denley: Ford needs to push for more U.S. trade against Carney's talk of less |
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Randall Denley: Ford needs to push for more U.S. trade against Carney's talk of less
Instead of a complex deal, why not suggest free movement of goods and services across the Canada-U.S. border without tariffs of any sort?
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It’s time for Premier Doug Ford to spell out exactly what Ontario wants from upcoming trade talks with the U.S. His key target audience is Prime Minister Mark Carney.
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Carney’s weekend video claim that, “(m)any of our former strengths, based on our close ties to America, have become weaknesses — weaknesses that we must correct,” suggests that he underestimates how important American trade is to Canada’s biggest province.
Randall Denley: Ford needs to push for more U.S. trade against Carney's talk of less Back to video
He might want to consult a 2025 report from Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office. Trade with the U.S. made up 77 per cent of Ontario’s total goods exports and 60 per cent of services exports. Those exports accounted for 13 per cent of the province’s GDP and supported 933,000 jobs in 2024, about one in every nine.
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Far from being a weakness, Ontario’s location adjacent to the world’s largest economy is the biggest economic advantage the province has. Carney’s vow to double non-U.S. trade over a decade is not a viable replacement option. Ontario’s exports to all other countries make up less than half what it exports to the U.S. alone.
Perhaps Carney is just posturing, his comments about not needing the U.S. a counter to President Donald Trump’s assertion that Americans don’t need Canadian products.
The facts tell a different story. More than 70 per cent of Canada’s merchandise exports go to the U.S. and our country is America’s biggest trade customer. More than $3.6 billion in exports cross the border every day.
The weakness that ought to worry Ontarians is Carney’s dealmaking ability. Since Trump started his trade war, Canada has been playing defence, giving the Americans goals without firing a shot in return. Canada cancelled a proposed digital sales tax, withdrew retaliatory tariffs, and boosted border security. We got nothing.
Carney needs someone to stiffen his spine. Who better to do it than Ford, a leader who has consistently supported a strong trade deal with the U.S.?
Ontario needs to detail a trade plan that would protect its own interests, which are different from provinces that lack significant manufacturing. The plan should be simple, something that can be easily understood on both sides of the border.
How about this? Instead of some complex deal full of loopholes and exemptions, why not suggest that free trade be exactly what the name suggests: the free movement of goods and services across the Canada-U.S. border without tariffs of any sort?
The idea of complete free trade is not that much of a stretch, given at least 85 per cent of our trade with the U.S is potentially tariff-free under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Total free trade is aimed straight at Trump’s ego. If Canada doesn’t have anything Americans want, how could opening their borders to us harm his country? Complete free trade is easily framed as a “big, beautiful deal” with apparent wins for Trump.
The U.S. has said it wants access to Canada’s dairy market, an $8.9-billion sector in Ontario. Good. The supply management scheme controls prices, driving up costs for consumers here. It’s a state-controlled system that wouldn’t have been out of place in the former Soviet Union. A little American competition would be useful, although shoppers’ buy-Canada preferences should continue to sustain Ontario’s dairy industry.
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The Americans want Canada’s provinces to start selling their booze again. Great. Ontario’s LCBO would make money on that.
The Americans want a shot at our government contracts. OK. More competition is likely to drive prices down and there’s nothing to say we need to pick an American supplier.
The biggest win for Ontario would be removal of Trump-imposed tariffs on the steel, lumber and auto sectors. Unlike dairy, those sectors are all heavily reliant on exports to the U.S.
A total free-trade plan would give Ford and other Canadian leaders something to pitch straight to Americans, who have already figured out that Trump’s tariffs are costing them money. Eliminating those tariffs would be welcome, and who could argue against a plan that seems to give the Americans everything they want, or at least everything Americans might care about?
Trump’s team has identified other trade irritants, including French-language labelling and the Online News Act, which obligates big social media companies to pay for the right to distribute news from Canadian sources. They can also choose not to, as Meta has done. Not exactly deal-breakers for the average American, so there is no need to offer them up.
When it comes to policy, Ford and Carney are opposites, the prime minister is drawn to complexity, the premier to simplicity. Carney has said little about what he wants in a trade deal, creating a chance for Ford to define expectations in a way the public can understand. It’s an opportunity Ford should take, for Ontario and for the country.
randalldenley1@gmail.com
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