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Michael Taube: Avi Lewis may be next NDP leader, but his party will remain irrelevant

The NDP has almost no money in its war chest, has been devoid of tangible ideas and policies for years

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Most political observers believe that Avi Lewis will become the next federal NDP leader on March 29. It appears the far-left activist and former TV host/journalist may have also found a path to political success in Ottawa that his party could only dream of right now.

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A recent Mainstreet Research poll suggested that Lewis, if he became NDP leader, would have a legitimate shot of winning the federal Beaches-East York riding if it becomes vacant. The seat is currently held by Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith. He’s considering running for the Ontario Liberal leadership and the forthcoming Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If Erskine-Smith takes the provincial plunge and resigns his federal seat, Lewis would likely jump at the chance to become the riding’s next MP based on the poll’s findings.

Michael Taube: Avi Lewis may be next NDP leader, but his party will remain irrelevant Back to video

Mainstreet Research tested three ballot scenarios in Beaches-East York. Erskine-Smith easily won the first scenario with 67 per cent support. Rob Ashton, a lesser-known NDP leadership candidate, finished ahead of the Conservatives in the second scenario but well behind the Liberals (55 to 26 per cent). In the third scenario, Lewis earned 42.6 per cent, beating a “generic” Liberal candidate (39.5 per cent) and Conservative candidate (13.7 per cent).

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To say this caught some people’s eyes would be an understatement. Lewis, a left-wing radical who couldn’t even win a federal seat in B.C., one of the few provinces where NDP candidates have a chance at electoral success — he finished third in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country in 2021 and Vancouver Centre in 2025 — could gain a Toronto seat as leader of a largely meaningless party in today’s political environment. Could an NDP revitalization be in the political cards, too?

The short answer is “no.”

It’s important to remember the demographics and politics in Beaches-East York have always been well to the left. The federal electoral district, known as Beaches-Woodbine from 1988-1997, has largely been in Liberal hands. Nevertheless, the NDP won it twice (Neil Young in 1988, Matthew Kellway in 2011) and finished second to the Liberals in every other federal election except 2025.

In the provincial electoral district, also named Beaches-East York, the NDP has been a political force for decades. The party won every provincial election in the riding from 1999-2022, except for Liberal candidate Arthur Potts’s tight win in 2014. Former city councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon, running as a Liberal, won a close election in 2022 and held the seat comfortably in 2025.

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If Lewis was ever going to win a House of Commons seat, it would have to be in a tailor-made, left-leaning riding like Beaches-East York. And since he was born and raised in Toronto, it would be easy for him to leave Vancouver and come back home.

While Lewis may have found a possible golden ticket to Ottawa, his floundering party still won’t have two nickels to rub together if they unwisely choose him as leader next week.

Today’s NDP is a complete disaster. They held only 6.29 per cent of the vote in last year’s federal election, winning only seven seats under former leader Jagmeet Singh. On March 10, the party went down to six seats when Nunavut MP Lori Idlout crossed the floor to the Liberals.

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The NDP has almost no money in its war chest, has been devoid of tangible ideas and policies for years — and has been expertly out-flanked on the political left by Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney.

That’s why the NDP leadership race devolved into a barely-noticed contest of mostly irrelevant candidates competing for the fringiest of fringe-left supporters. It’s the perfect storm for a political lefty like Lewis, but it’s not likely to translate into mainstream political support and an increased seat count in Ottawa.

Lewis’s leadership campaign website features a combination of left-wing rhetoric and political wingnuttery, including dashes of Occupy Wall Street and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s Democratic Socialist fever dream. Some of his ideas include: “tax the ultra-rich,” “end corporate handouts,” “build a million public homes,” “head to toe healthcare,” “create 1 million good green jobs,” “public option for groceries,” and “postal banking.”

The old European Communist and Socialist parties would have approved of these measures, but that’s hardly a vote of confidence.

On March 21, he’s holding a political rally with disgraced outgoing CUPE Ontario president Fred Hahn and former Québec solidaire co-leader Amir Khadir.

Lewis’ list of left-wing endorsements includes environmentalists (Tzeporah Berman, Tara Cullis. David Suzuki), political/community activists (Jehad Aliweiwi, Judy Rebick, Yipeng Ge), former and current union leaders (Jeff Irons, Sid Ryan, Nas Yadollahi), public figures (Min Sook Lee, Yann Martel, Gabor Maté, Charles Taylor) and a garden variety of former and current NDP politicians (Zanana Akande, Jill Andrew, Marilyn Churley, Leah Gazan, Svend Robinson, Bill Siksay, Peter Tabuns).

Lewis’s campaign is based on a preposterous series of ideas and proposals that aren’t economically attainable or rooted in reality. The Canadian electorate, even with its liberal (and Liberal) history, isn’t likely to suddenly fall for the ramblings of a far-left, out-of-touch socialist like Lewis. His views are so radical that most Liberals, Greens and nominal NDP supporters would likely be hesitant to vote for him.

Sure, Lewis will win small pockets of support in Canada if he becomes NDP leader. He may win a seat in Parliament. But the irrelevant NDP will likely become even more irrelevant under his leadership.

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