Michael Bonner: Ayatollah Khamenei's end is coming soon

The Iranian regime has already rotted from within

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We’ve seen it before: mass demonstrations, demands for the fall of the Iranian regime, burning flags, falling statues. Protesters fill the streets, appearing to shake the foundation of the regime, but thugs loyal to the mullahs react with obscene violence, vague promises of reform are heard, and the incipient revolution fizzles out. But it is different this time.

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Why? There are three reasons.

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The first reason is economic. The Iranian regime faces a disastrous combination of crises: hyperinflation, unchecked corruption, and a sanctions regimen that has cut off access to global markets, frozen assets abroad, and diminished oil revenues. The public and military administrations now struggle to pay their employees and henchmen. This problem was ironically exacerbated by pursuing the regime’s own interests: proxy wars and direct confrontations, especially the recent conflict with Israel, have wasted resources to no benefit; and support for groups like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the now-defunct Assad regime in Syria, has weakened Iran’s regional influence at enormous cost. The regime’s mismanagement of water resources has furthermore brought domestic agriculture to the point of collapse. This means food insecurity, growing dependence on ever more expensive imports, and even higher inflation.

The second and third reasons take shape in the figures of U.S. President Donald Trump and Reza Pahlavi, son of the former shah of Iran.

Trump has announced his support for protesters, and threatened military action in the event of a crackdown. The Americans haven’t done anything yet, but this summer’s bombing campaign during the so-called Twelve Day War and the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, a former ally of the Iranian regime, suggests that Trump is serious. Moreover, the fall of Maduro denies Iran a vital

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