He will have to face the fact that his opponent has been selling Tory policies better than he did — and do something about it

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A year ago, Justin Trudeau was still determined to hang on as prime minister, still professing to believe he could win the next election against all odds and public evidence.

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If he’d held on, he’d probably have been creamed in the election he would likely have been forced to call within months. The Liberal party would have been reduced to post-Mulroney-esque levels, while Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre would be basking in the glory of his achievement, his majority and the deep affections of his caucus. But Trudeau didn’t hold on, and everything is different as a result.

Now, Poilievre is determined to hang on as Conservative leader, still convinced he can win the next election. The odds against that happening aren’t as bad as they were for Trudeau, but you wouldn’t want to bet the farm on it.

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In politics, Trudeau had both birth and good fortune on his side, but he stayed far too long, challenged the good nature of too many Canadians and should have left before he was forced out. Voters were already tiring of him at the end of his first term, when he ended up losing both his majority and the popular vote. Two years later, in the midst of a global pandemic he tried to capitalize on, Trudeau called an unnecessary election and won even fewer votes.

Like many in his party, he suffered an inability to distinguish between his own beliefs and the national interest. Liberals have been coddled so often with the notion they represent a natural governing party, they’ve come to believe it. They see their own views and the national........

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