Bryan Brulotte: War with Iran is a necessary risk |
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Bryan Brulotte: War with Iran is a necessary risk
The benefits of preventing a hostile regime from crossing the nuclear threshold and destabilizing the international order outweigh the risks
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War clarifies intentions and strips away illusion. The war between Iran and the West is no longer being fought in the shadows through proxies and covert disruption. The joint American and Israeli campaign is now targeting military infrastructure, command networks, nuclear facilities and senior leadership figures within the Islamic Republic.
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Predictably, critics are asking whether such strikes risk destabilizing Iran. They worry about chaos, fragmentation and the absence of a clear “day after” plan. But that question rests on a flawed assumption: it presumes that the status quo was stable.
Bryan Brulotte: War with Iran is a necessary risk Back to video
In reality, the Iranian regime has spent decades exporting instability throughout the Middle East through its proxy militias and nuclear brinkmanship. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, militia networks in Iraq and Syria and Houthi forces in Yemen are not spontaneous movements. They are instruments of state power co-ordinated through Tehran’s security apparatus.
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In such circumstances, leaving the regime intact would allow it to steadily expand its nuclear capabilities and proxy reach. Disrupting it, on the other hand, could neutralize a threat before the cost of reversal becomes prohibitive. No serious strategist imagines that risk can be eliminated. It can only be redistributed.
That is why it is important to separate rhetoric from operational reality. Public statements about regime change may capture attention, but strategy is revealed by actions. The current campaign is not characterized by large-scale mobilization for territorial occupation or political reconstruction.
It is characterized by targeted strikes against leadership nodes, military infrastructure and nuclear assets. That pattern suggests a narrower objective: degrade capabilities, disrupt co-ordination and restore deterrence. Within that framework, three plausible outcomes present themselves.
The first and most probable is regime continuity under intensified securitization. The Islamic Republic has survived sanctions, internal unrest, targeted killings and economic isolation for decades. Its resilience rests not simply on clerical authority but on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an institution that functions simultaneously as a military force, intelligence service and economic power centre.
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External attacks can consolidate such systems rather than fracture them. National identity fuses with regime preservation. Emergency powers expand. Dissent becomes indistinguishable from disloyalty.
If the security apparatus remains cohesive, Tehran will likely emerge damaged but intact and even more hostile toward the United States and Israel. In that scenario, Iranian retaliation would continue through calibrated escalation.
Missiles, drones and proxy operations impose costs without triggering overwhelming retaliation. Maritime pressure in the Strait of Hormuz would become a lever of economic coercion. Survival, not victory, would be the strategic objective.
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The second possibility is internal fragmentation leading to prolonged instability. Authoritarian systems rarely collapse because of protest alone. They fracture when elite cohesion breaks. Leadership decapitation, economic shock or competition within the Revolutionary Guard could trigger internal rivalries that weaken central control.
Such instability would likely manifest as armed unrest in major cities, regional assertiveness among minority populations and competing security services claiming legitimacy.
A fractured Iran would not necessarily be peaceful. In the short term, it could be more volatile and unpredictable. Refugee flows would strain neighbouring states. Energy markets would remain unsettled. External actors would manoeuvre for influence in the vacuum. Yet internal disorder may also constrain the regime’s capacity for sustained external aggression by diverting attention and resources inward.
The third outcome, which is often discussed but the least probable, is the emergence of a strongman who’s prepared to recalibrate relations with the West. Crisis can produce concentrated authority. But ideological realignment rarely follows automatically.
Even a pragmatic leader would likely seek sanctions relief and tactical de-escalation rather than strategic alignment with Washington. Hostility toward the United States is embedded in decades of political identity in Iran. Pressure alone will not erase it.
None of this negates the strategic logic of acting now. A regime approaching the nuclear threshold while projecting power through layered proxy networks presents an accumulating risk. Delay does not preserve stability. It allows adversarial capabilities to mature. Over time, infrastructure hardens, air defences improve and the cost of reversal rises.
For Canada, the implications are not abstract. Our interests align with preventing a hostile regime from crossing the nuclear threshold and destabilizing the broader international order. Canada should stand firmly with its allies while preparing soberly for the economic and security spillovers that may follow. In this regard, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent public statements have seemed disjointed and contradictory.
War changes balances of power. It does not quickly transform political culture. The months ahead will determine whether this campaign successfully constrains Iran’s ability to export instability or merely reshapes the risks it presents. The task now is to show resolve without illusion.
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