Danielle Smith’s government is poised to run a string of multi-billion dollar deficits that could add upwards of $25 billion to the province’s debt, even as it boasts record-high oil production and expanded access to global markets. It’s also responsible for an ever-expanding ethical scandal over private surgical contracts, rising insurance and utility costs, and Smith’s ongoing attempt to crash — sorry, “refocus” — the healthcare system. And yet, her United Conservative Party is still the favourite, and maybe even a heavy one, to win the next election.  

Why? The answer is staring right back at her in the provincial legislature: NDP leader Naheed Nenshi. For all of the fanfare that greeted his election as Alberta NDP leader in 2024, the man who routinely garnered international coverage as Calgary’s first Muslim mayor has been practically invisible as a provincial politician. And while it’s possible that Smith’s ongoing flirtation with separatism could split her party and hand the next election to the NDP, it’s far more likely that Nenshi is sleepwalking his party into defeat. 

That wasn’t the case in 2023, when most of the polls heading into that year’s provincial election had the NDP (under Rachel Notley’s leadership) ahead of the UCP. They would go on to drop the ball during the actual campaign, especially with their ill-advised promise to raise corporate taxes. But under Nenshi’s leadership the NDP has never been ahead. Of the 14 publicly available polls taken since his June 2024 victory, not a single one has the NDP in front. Most of them have the NDP behind by double digits, including the recent Leger result that put the UCP up by 13. 

That’s against a federal backdrop that’s far more favourable for Nenshi than it was for Notley. A recent Mainstreet poll showed the Carney Liberals trailing the Conservatives by just three points in Alberta, a net swing of 33 points from the 2025 federal election. If Nenshi can’t attract more popular support with these sorts of political winds at his back, what will it look like when they start blowing in his face? 

Those storm clouds are already gathering in Ottawa, with the seemingly inevitable arrival of Avi Lewis on the federal stage as NDP leader when the votes are finally counted on March 29. This is the same Avi Lewis whose delivery of the “Leap Manifesto” at the 2016 national NDP convention in Edmonton caused so much trouble for Rachel Notley’s government, and who has continued to talk about the oil and gas industry in ways that will assuredly make their way into UCP campaign materials. Nenshi has publicly warned Lewis not to say or do things that could get in the way of electing an Alberta NDP government, but anyone who’s followed Lewis’s career knows that isn’t happening. 

It might be tempting for NDP loyalists to tell themselves that Nenshi will shine during the campaign, and especially the debate between the two leaders. I don’t think I’d place that bet myself. For all of her flaws, Danielle Smith is one of the most talented retail politicians of her generation, and her debating skills are nearly as formidable. Nenshi, meanwhile, has yet to be tested at that highest level of provincial politics — and winning a debate isn’t the same thing as winning an election. 

Nenshi might want to ask Pierre Poilievre about that. For all of their ideological differences, the two men have a lot in common — too much, if you’re an NDP supporter — when it comes to tone and temperment. Both men hold their own ideas and accomplishments in conspicuously high regard, and both clearly enjoy talking about them. “I will put my record up against Danielle Smith’s record every day and twice on my birthday,” Nenshi told the Calgary Herald’s Don Braid recently. “We also have tons of polling that consistently shows my approval ratings are far higher than the premier’s.”

Premier Danielle Smith has run big budget deficits, raised the cost of living, and spent most of her time catering to separatists. So why does it feel like the Alberta NDP is even further from political relevance than ever?

Perhaps Poilievre isn’t the only Alberta political leader who needs to change his approach to voters. But where the federal Conservative would benefit from being less aggressive and combative, it’s the reverse for Nenshi, who too often defaults to a kind of professorial prickliness — and lately, a lack of energy and passion. In my own decidedly progressive-leaning circles, I’ve heard plenty of people raise the issue of his health and wellbeing and whether he has the energy needed to fight (and win) an election campaign. 

His recent performance in an online forum, one documented by longtime Alberta journalist Doug Firby on his Substack, didn’t do anything to assuage those concerns. “Nenshi, who was barely audible at times, frequently interrupted and talked over his MLAs, at times when they seemed to be ready to make important points,” Firby writes. “He appeared tired and reluctantly discussed his chronic Morbihan disease condition, a combination of rosacea and edema which, in his case, causes one eye to appear to be half-swollen shut.”

Maybe his heart just isn’t in the fight. Maybe his health really is preventing him from presenting the sort of vigorous opposition that Albertans need right now. But if that’s the case, he needs to step aside for someone who can. Rakhi Pancholi, the Alberta NDP’s deputy leader and a front-runner in the leadership race before she threw her support behind Nenshi, seems like the obvious choice. She, not Nenshi, gave the NDP’s official response to the Premier’s Address on Friday and she brought a kind of fire to the party’s message that’s been conspicuously absent for some time. 

There are other things the NDP needs to win the next election, from a more coherent economic message to a slate of candidates that can better carry it. But most of all, it needs a leader who has the appetite to fight for Canada, and Alberta, against a premier who seems willing to sacrifice both. The Alberta NDP doesn’t have one right now. 

© National Observer