In 2026, Carney’s biggest political challenge could emerge from within his own ranks |
Mark Carney confronts innumerable challenges here at home and globally as he enters his second year as prime minister. But rising economic anxieties fueled by an international trading order turned on its head aren’t likely to be the prime minister’s most daunting challenge in 2026. Instead, Carney’s biggest political threat is likely to emerge from within his own party.
It’s clear that many Canadians intuitively trust Carney. The bet that a large swath of the country made on the former central banker in last spring’s historic election remains ironclad.
And while Carney’s early policy and political wins have demonstrated discipline and focus, they have also exposed age-old faultlines between progressives — both social and climate-oriented — and the fiscal and economic moderates within the Liberal Party’s political coalition.
The risk for Liberals in 2026 is that the party’s progressive wing will feel increasingly sidelined; a significant and historically powerful faction that dominated federal politics for the past decade cannot be ignored in political terms. I write this as a longtime moderate Liberal who strongly supports Carney’s new centrist approach.
Ideological tensions between progressives and moderates have proven instrumental to the Liberals’ reputation as arguably the most successful brokerage party in the Western world. But under Carney’s tenure, these tensions are becoming more pronounced below the surface. If left unaddressed, ideological cleavages could represent a significant political vulnerability for the prime minister.
Historically, progressive and moderate factions have been well represented in Liberal cabinets stretching back through the Mackenzie King, St. Laurent and Pearson eras.........