The other high-risk gamble in West Asia |
The UAE’s decision to walk out of OPEC and OPEC is not just about oil. It represents a blunt geopolitical rupture. Abu Dhabi is no longer disguising its rivalry with Saudi Arabia nor walking a tightrope between regional camps. It is openly gravitating towards a new axis consisting of the US, Israel and increasingly India — and this high-risk strategy is deepening conflict lines across regions already on edge.
OPEC, created in 1960, was designed to coordinate oil production and give oil-producing countries collective control over global prices. OPEC came into being in 2016 to fold in 10 other countries, including big producers like Russia. For decades, Saudi Arabia dominated both structures, using them as instruments of economic and geopolitical influence. The UAE’s exit strips away part of that leverage and signals that Abu Dhabi no longer accepts Riyadh’s leadership, not just in oil but in the broader regional order.
The economic argument for leaving is straightforward. The UAE wants to produce more oil than OPEC quotas allow because the Iran war has put its economy under great strain. It wants to monetise its reserves quickly, to hedge against a future where fossil fuel demand has declined. But this is only the surface. What lies underneath is a deeper strategic break with Saudi Arabia, stretching across energy policy, military alliances and global partnerships.
The Abraham Accords of 2020 marked a significant geopolitical shift, with the UAE normalising relations with Israel and building cooperation in trade, technology and security. In contrast,........