Once more, the United States and Iran are standing at the edge of a precipice. Warplanes and aircraft carriers are moving into position, troops are being deployed and dangerous threats being exchanged. In this tense atmosphere, even one wrong move or misunderstanding can trigger a crisis that will become very difficult to contain.

The downing of an Iranian drone this week by the US military in the Arabian Sea shows how quickly small incidents can turn into a major confrontation. There were fresh reports of Iranian forces harassing a US-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, trying to stop it for boarding. These are not distant warnings but signs of a confrontation taking shape in real time.

Yet even with this rising tension, a small diplomatic opening still exists. Talks aimed at reviving a nuclear agreement are still on the table, and Washington insists negotiations are continuing even as military forces exchange signals of escalation. This opening is fragile, but it is also the only realistic way to prevent a conflict that could spread from a regional war into a global crisis with huge human and economic costs.

The most dangerous path would be a US military campaign to effect regime change in Tehran. History shows that these projects never produce stability. From Iraq to Libya, the collapse of a central state does not create a new stable governance system; it creates a vacuum.

Iran is not a small or weak country that can be reshaped easily. It is a nation of more than ninety million people with deep institutions, a strong sense of history and a powerful security system. If an outside attack tries to topple the ruling structure, the most likely result is not surrender or reform, but unity against an external enemy. Hardliners would gain power, security forces tighten control and many citizens who dislike the government still rally around the nation when it comes under foreign........

© National Herald