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How the India–China story fell apart

26 31
20.01.2026

My generation (I am 56) grew up on the expectation that India would compete with China and become one of the world’s great powers in our lifetime. This confidence was felt by us, it was spoken about in politics and it was written about by the world’s journalists. All through the 1990s, and the 2000s, for two decades, this sentiment remained.

Yes, India was growing a little slower, and yes, India was not industrialising as China was, but it was only a matter of time before it caught up. One famous writer compared the two nations' futures and said China’s road to development was smooth but with one giant bump on the horizon, which was the transition to democracy. India’s road was pot-holed but it had no major obstacles to development.

This turned out to be both simplistic and totally wrong. At some point, I think this happened in the last decade or so though it could be a little later, it was realised that all the forecasting was off.

India would not rival China as an economic power or a great power, meaning one that is able to influence the world. We would not follow the path of other Asian nations like Japan, Korea, Singapore and China into prosperity for our citizens. We would continue as many nations do, with the majority remaining poor by the standards of the world (India’s per capita GDP is one-fourth of the world’s average).

The ambition fell away from my generation,........

© National Herald