Trans-rights supporters rally outside the US Supreme Court on Wednesday.Angelina Katsanis/Politico/AP

After the Supreme Court ruled nine years ago that the Constitution protected same-sex marriage, far-right groups, in need of a new rallying cry, turned their attention to transgender people—in particular, kids. That strategic shift has met with devastating success: In recent years, 24 states have made it illegal for doctors to provide trans youth with puberty blockers and hormone therapy—treatments supported by virtually all leading US medical organizations—for the purpose of alleviating gender dysphoria.

Although anti-trans groups frame their campaign as a “Promise to America’s Children,” their ultimate goal has long been apparent: ending gender transitions for all people, including adults. As Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project, admitted last year, he and his allies were starting with children because that’s “where the consensus is.”

That agenda was front and center Wednesday morning when the Supreme Court heard arguments in United States v. Skrmetti, a landmark case that could prove to be as consequential for trans rights as the Dobbs decision has been for abortion. The case focuses on Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming treatments for minors, passed last year. But throughout hearing, which lasted two and a half hours, lawyers repeatedly brought up the ramifications for adults as well.

A decision in Tennessee’s favor would pave the way for courts to uphold broader bans on gender-affirming care in the future. “There really is much more at stake,” says Katie Eyer, who teaches anti-discrimination law at Rutgers University, “including........

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