The “Third Gulf War” and the collapse of the oil-for-security bargain |
For more than forty years, the security setup in the Persian Gulf has basically rested on one straightforward bargain: the Arab oil-producing states keep the oil flowing steadily, and in exchange, the United States promises to protect them. This “oil for security” arrangement didn’t just shape America’s ties with its Arab partners—it also helped keep global energy markets relatively calm and predictable.
But what we’re seeing now, in this so-called “Third Gulf War” between the U.S.–Israel side and Iran, has blown that old paradigm apart. And it might not be coming back.
This isn’t just another flare-up in a region that’s no stranger to conflict. It feels more like a harsh wake-up call, one that lays bare the growing disconnect between what Washington says it will do and what it actually delivers on the ground.
Gulf Arab states had counted on strong, decisive American backing when Iran launched those big retaliatory barrages—waves of drones and missiles hitting energy facilities, ports, and military sites. Instead, the response from the U.S. came across as hesitant, selective, and limited.
Gulf Arab states had counted on strong, decisive American backing when Iran launched those big retaliatory barrages—waves of drones and missiles hitting energy facilities, ports, and military sites. Instead, the response from the U.S. came across as hesitant, selective, and limited.
Maybe America simply didn’t have the full capacity to build an airtight defense against that kind of assault. Or maybe, with the Trump administration’s heavy “Israel-first” tilt, it just didn’t have........