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The Iran War: Consequences for US regional allies

21 9 0

Although neither the United States nor Iran want war, tensions and along with them the likelihood of conflict-triggering miscalculations and accidents, have been running high since the Trump administration designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organisation and revoked sanctions waivers for buyers of Iranian oil. On 24 May, the Pentagon confirmed US plans to dispatch an extra 1,500 troops to the Middle East to counter “the ongoing threat posed by Iranian forces, including the IRGC and its proxies,” according to the Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan.

What makes the situation even more hazardous is lack of proper communication between the two sides and a strong desire on the part of Washington’s regional allies for such a confrontation. Given the lobbying campaigns of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel for a more aggressive American policy towards the Islamic Republic, there is a growing consensus among Iran watchers that these allies are working to drag the United States into a military conflict with Iran. It is no wonder the Trump administration is citing a national security “emergency” to bypass the Congress and sell billions of dollars worth of weaponry to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

For various psycho-political and historical reasons, the US “maximum pressure” policy against Tehran is unlikely to change its foreign policy. Yet US allies in the geographical proximity of Iran will not go unscathed if a conflict does break out and develops into a full-fledged war.


© Middle East Monitor