Negotiation is being spoken of constantly, yet a meaningful settlement has rarely been farther away. In an existential war, talks are not a neutral return to reason. They become another theatre of the conflict itself. That is the central reality of the current war involving Iran, Israel and the US. For Tehran, entering negotiations before altering the regional balance of power – especially in relation to Israel and the Gulf monarchies – would not mean peace. It would mean formalising vulnerability. For Donald Trump, de-escalation is not a cost-free option either. A war tied to Hormuz, Gulf infrastructure and energy prices cannot simply be paused without looking like strategic retreat.

This is why both sides now speak the language of diplomacy while behaving according to the logic of escalation. What is called negotiation in these conditions is not diplomacy after war. It is armed diplomacy inside war, shaped by battlefield realities, economic coercion and political time.

Negotiation without leverage

The most important mistake in reading this war is to assume that Tehran is rejecting negotiation in principle. It is not. Tehran is rejecting a negotiation that would codify the imbalance exposed by war. Before the conflict, a bargain might have been imagined over sanctions, nuclear constraints and regional de-escalation. After the war began, the meaning of negotiation changed. What Iran now sees on the table is something harsher: accept military pressure, surrender key deterrent tools, and trust that the same regional order which failed to protect it will suddenly guarantee its security.

From Tehran’s perspective, that is not diplomacy. It is disarmament under fire. A state that believes itself to be in an existential confrontation cannot negotiate away the instruments it now regards as the minimum conditions of survival. Recent mediation reports point in the same direction: Tehran is demanding guarantees against renewed attacks and refusing any bargain that strips away its remaining deterrent tools. This matters even more because the strategic picture now extends beyond Israel to the Gulf monarchies.

The issue is not whether Iran can stop the bombing. It is whether any........

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