When a supreme leader is assassinated, the Global South trembles |
The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in joint United States–Israeli strikes has torn a hole not only through Iran’s leadership, but through the fragile architecture of the international order itself. The shockwaves are no longer confined to Tehran. They ripple through the Strait of Hormuz, across Gulf capitals, into energy markets in Singapore and Sydney, and deep into the conscience of a world already fatigued by war.
Iran now stands at a precipice. An interim council – President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, and a senior Guardian Council cleric – has assumed authority, promising continuity under the constitution.
The Assembly of Experts is expected to appoint a successor within days. Yet history offers little comfort. As the Journal of Democracy observes, the death of an autocrat rarely ushers in democratic rebirth; entrenched systems often outlive their architects. Iran’s hybrid theocratic–republican state, built upon velayat-e faqih, is deeply institutionalised, anchored by the Revolutionary Guards and a clerical establishment that fuses ideology with coercive power.
But something has changed. For nearly two years, Israel’s military campaign across the region has expanded from Gaza to Lebanon and now to Iran itself, creating a widening arc of confrontation. Tehran’s response – missile salvos, drone warfare, mobilisation of proxy networks in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon – has transformed a shadow conflict into open regional war. The Atlantic Council warns that Iran is likely to deploy ‘everything it has’, including its full missile arsenal and proxy forces. Chatham House cautions that aerial bombardment alone is unlikely to topple such an entrenched regime. Escalation, once ignited, rarely respects borders.
The economic consequences are immediate and unforgiving. Brent crude surged roughly 10 per cent in a single day, trading near US$80 a barrel, with analysts warning of spikes towards US$100 should disruption in the Strait of Hormuz intensify.
The economic consequences are immediate and unforgiving. Brent crude surged roughly 10 per cent in a single day, trading near US$80 a barrel, with analysts warning of spikes towards US$100 should disruption in the Strait of Hormuz intensify.
Nearly 20 per cent of global oil flows through that narrow corridor. Tanker traffic has already slowed. Capital Economics estimates a 0.6–0.7 percentage point addition to global inflation if prices remain elevated. For emerging economies dependent on energy imports, this is not an abstraction; it is a fiscal and political stress test.
READ: Iranian state TV says Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed in US-Israeli........