What happens to the Red Sea when Somaliland is dragged into proxy wars |
The world’s attention remains fixed on Gaza, southern Lebanon, and the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran’s network of regional allies. Yet another front is quietly emerging hundreds of kilometres away, on the African shore of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It is a development receiving far less scrutiny than it deserves, despite its potential to reshape one of the most consequential maritime corridors on earth.
Israel’s reported military cooperation with Somaliland — including allegations that around 50 Somaliland Special Forces personnel received training in Tel Aviv and the symbolic presentation of an Iron Dome interceptor fragment to Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi — is not merely an unconventional diplomatic outreach. It reflects a broader geostrategic calculation centred on the Red Sea and the growing contest over the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow maritime gateway connecting the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal. The strait carries roughly 10–12 per cent of global seaborne trade and remains one of the world’s most critical energy and logistics chokepoints.
Viewed in isolation, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in late 2025 appears extraordinary. No other UN member state has formally recognised Somaliland’s independence. But viewed through the prism of maritime security, the move begins to look less like diplomacy and more like strategic positioning.
Viewed in isolation, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in late 2025 appears extraordinary. No other UN member state has formally recognised Somaliland’s independence. But viewed through the prism of maritime security, the move begins to look less like diplomacy and more like strategic positioning.
The Houthis’ campaign against commercial shipping since late 2023 has transformed the Red Sea from a transit corridor into a contested battlespace. Insurance premiums have surged. Major shipping companies have repeatedly diverted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of nautical miles to journeys between Asia and Europe. For Israel, whose confrontation with the Houthis has intensified alongside the Gaza war, securing influence near Bab el-Mandeb has become a national security imperative rather than a peripheral foreign-policy ambition.
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Geography explains why Somaliland matters. Berbera sits along the Gulf of Aden,........