Gulf allies urge restraint as Washington weighs escalation |
At a moment when the Middle East stands on the edge of escalation, the decisive voices have already been heard — not from Washington, but from Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha and other GCC nations. In the last 48 hours, the Gulf has moved from anxious diplomacy to the edge of a direct military crisis as Washington and Tehran traded threats even while back-channel talks and regional mediation intensified. Calmly and deliberately, Gulf states have reaffirmed a simple truth: their land, airspace and bases will not be used to fuel another war on Iran.
This is not an exceptional stance, but a consistent one — born of long memory, strategic clarity and a deep, collective determination to keep the region from sliding once more into avoidable conflict.
The numbers alone explain the fear. Around 20 per cent of global oil still flows through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly 20 million barrels per day transit the Strait of Hormuz — about one-fifth of global oil flows — while the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook flags regional instability as a material growth risk. Even a brief disruption would send shockwaves through energy markets already stretched by wars in Ukraine and Gaza, inflationary pressures, and fragile post-pandemic recovery. The International Monetary Fund has repeatedly warned that a major Gulf conflict could shave multiple percentage points off global growth.
For states whose own economic diversification plans depend on stability — Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the UAE’s non-oil GDP now exceeding 70 per cent, Qatar’s gas-driven sovereign wealth — war is not an abstraction. It is an existential threat to development trajectories painstakingly built over decades.
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Yet the Gulf position is not only economic. It is deeply historical. The region remembers what external intervention looks like once the slogans fade. Iraq after 2003 experienced deep institutional disruption, leading to extensive societal costs and enabling the rise of non-state armed actors. Libya’s 2011 intervention fractured a state and destabilised North Africa. Afghanistan, after twenty years and more than US$2 trillion spent, returned to where it began.
These are not distant case studies. They are life lessons. Therefore, they come to the same answer, which is why the Gulf reaction to recent threats against Iran has been so swift and unambiguous.
Saudi Arabia has formally conveyed to Tehran that its territory and airspace will not be used for any attack. The UAE has publicly stated it will not permit hostile military actions........