The predicament of the Islamic Republic: Why 2026 is different |
By January 2026, “cumulative erosion” will begin to characterize Iran’s Islamic Republic, defying the classical rhythms of reform and repression. Though the Rial’s collapse ignited the protest movement within Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, this nationwide mass revolt is characteristic of a crisis encompassing financial bankruptcy, ecological “Day Zero” projections, and a generational shift that has rendered its ideological scaffolding irrelevant.
The generative power of “horizonless”
The horizonless generation of Gen Z. leads the current wave of mobilization. Unlike the 2009 Green Wave, which aimed to enhance the Republican character of the state, or the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, which aimed to uproot cultural pillars, the current 2026 mutiny has a brutal, matter-of-fact pragmatism. For a generation in which 90% of university students have named their primary objective as “migration at any cost,” the state’s social contract has been destroyed.
As Dr. Emine Gözde Toprak wrote for the IRAM Center just recently, “The Iranian people’s life has been downgraded from ‘living’ to ‘surviving.’ The bazaar has produced a new generation of ‘economic dissidents.” The bazaar’s bond with the religious establishment has always been the bedrock of the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Today, that foundation has become sand. When the bazaar closes its doors, it is not a mere strike. It is far deeper than that. It signals the withdrawal of the bazaar’s legitimacy from a ‘clerical military elite’ incapable of guaranteeing the market’s functionality.
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