Ceasefire or pause? The Gulf held hostage by Netanyahu’s war |
The ceasefire offered a much-needed breather for the Arab Gulf states. Donald Trump’s threat to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure could have unleashed a human catastrophe across the region with the potential to spiral into an uncontrollable conflagration.
Trump’s shift from threat to ceasefire appears deliberate. In my view, it was part of the phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, 5th April. Netanyahu was likely reluctant, possibly seeking to delay any ceasefire long enough to allow Israel to strike economic targets inside Iran. Trump, however, cornered by his deadline threat, seems to have pushed back. As inferred in his comments in the 6th April press conference, Trump might have boasted about his support for Israel, reminding Netanyahu that “if we didn’t do that… Israel would’ve been extinguished.”
By all indications, Netanyahu had little choice but to comply, accepting a halt to attacks on 7th April —just minutes before Trump’s ultimatum expired.
The real question now is not whether the ceasefire will hold, but how—and when—Israel will move to break it, whether against Iran, Lebanon, or Yemen. I wrote the previous sentence just hours before finalizing this article. Shortly thereafter, Israel committed massacres launching unprecedented attacks blowing up residential towers murdering more than 250 civilians throughout Lebanon. As in Gaza, the reality is undeniable: ceasefires are reduced to one-sided compliance allowing Israel to violate it with total impunity.
Nothing in this episode suggests that the Israel-first grip on American foreign policy has weakened.
The subordination of US policy in the Middle East to Israeli strategic priorities did not begin with Trump. It took shape under Lyndon Johnson and was entrenched during the Nixon years, when Henry Kissinger surrendered American Middle East peace policy to Israel.
The subordination of US policy in the Middle East to Israeli strategic priorities did not begin with Trump. It took shape under Lyndon Johnson and was entrenched during the Nixon years, when Henry Kissinger surrendered........