Is Latin America Paying the Price for a War It Had No Say In? |
When tensions escalate between Iran and the United States, attention usually turns to the Gulf, Israel, maritime routes, and oil markets. But that focus obscures a quieter and more complex arena: Latin America. The region may lie far from the immediate battlefield, yet it is not insulated from the fallout. For Latin America, a war involving Iran is not just a distant geopolitical crisis. It quickly becomes an economic one, driving up fuel costs, disrupting shipping, threatening fertilizer supplies, unsettling agricultural trade, and adding fresh pressure to inflation and growth.
How a region far from the conflict still ends up paying part of its price.
Brazil stands out in this regard, not because its economy is the weakest in the region, but because of the scale of its agricultural sector and its sensitivity to any disruption in urea markets, shipping routes, or external demand for grain.
Brazil stands out in this regard, not because its economy is the weakest in the region, but because of the scale of its agricultural sector and its sensitivity to any disruption in urea markets, shipping routes, or external demand for grain.
On March 9, 2026, Brent crude jumped to about $119.50 a barrel, rising roughly 25 percent in a single day and reaching its highest level since mid-2022 amid fears of disrupted supply and shipping through the Gulf. The bigger cost is slower growth and more inflation in Latin America. When oil prices rise, the impact does not stop at the gas station. It spreads through the whole economy, pushing up the cost of transport, electricity, fertilizers, food, and distribution. That matters even more because the region is not going into 2026 with much cushion. The IMF expects Latin America and the Caribbean to grow by just 2.2% in 2026.
But the most sensitive part of the crisis in Latin America is not oil alone. It is fertilizer. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz under strain, the war strikes one of the most fragile pressure points in Latin American........