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From Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb: Saudi Arabia’s difficult choices

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Developments in Yemen today cannot be separated from the repercussions of the war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran. The prolonged nature of this war, and the fact that it remains unresolved, arguably compel the countries of the region to reassess their strategic realities from a perspective different from the traditional approach that has shaped their thinking for decades. The US-Israeli war against Iran has brought about significant shifts in the region’s military, economic and political calculations, confronting Tehran with serious challenges and looming threats to its security, economy and future regional standing. For its part, Iran has drawn on a range of strategic assets at its disposal across the region to mitigate these threats by raising the costs borne by its Gulf neighbours. This Iranian strategy has exposed serious challenges facing the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, the most influential among them, with direct implications for their security and economies. Examining the escalating confrontation between Yemen and Saudi Arabia offers a means of analysing the challenges confronting the Kingdom today within a broader, emerging strategic perspective on the region and its future.

Saudi Arabia is facing a renewed wave of Houthi missile and drone attacks targeting its airports and oil facilities, alongside threats to Saudi shipping in the Red Sea. These targets are not new. The Kingdom faced similar attacks during the earlier years of the war in Yemen, before the de-escalation that followed the 2022 truce. That period of relative calm began to unravel on 13 July 2026, when the coalition targeted the runway at Sanaa airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing. The Yemeni government claimed responsibility for the operation, while the Houthis attributed it to Saudi Arabia. Following this, the Houthis announced that they had targeted Abha airport, before declaring a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia on 20 July. Within Yemen, the........

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