Iran at 47: An anniversary or an obituary? |
As the sun rose over Tehran yesterday, 11th February, the familiar echoes of revolutionary slogans filled Azadi Square, marking the 47th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution not its collapse. For decades, observers have peered through the fog of sanctions and social unrest, wondering if each anniversary might be the Republic’s last. Yet, as the 47th year arrives, the expected “obituary” has once again been shelved in favour of a complex “celebration.”
This year, the stakes are uniquely high. While internal pressures and the memory of recent domestic crackdowns linger, the external landscape has shifted back to a familiar, albeit more volatile, theatrical stage. With Donald Trump back in the Oval Office, the world is braced for “Maximum Pressure 2.0.” Instead, the anniversary arrives amidst a flurry of diplomatic signals: back-channel negotiations in Oman have quietly commenced, even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushes for maximum power–desperately determined to draw Trump into another regional war.
While critics have spent decades predicting the system’s imminent collapse under the weight of “Maximum Pressure” and internal economic strain, the state has once again demonstrated its institutional depth.
Tehran’s survival to this 47th milestone suggests a regime that has mastered the art of “crisis-living.” But as the fireworks fade, the fundamental question remains: is this a genuine show of endurance, or merely a stay of execution? By opting for the negotiating table in Oman rather than the “armada” in the Gulf, the US has provided the Islamic Republic with the oxygen needed to reach today. However, with the regional shadow of war growing and a restless youth population watching from the sidelines, one must ask if the path to the 48th anniversary will be paved with diplomacy or the final chapters of a long-failing state.
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The scene in Tehran today is........