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Conflicting expectations in Palestine amid registration of dozens of electoral lists

16 7 2

The Central Elections Commission has completed the first phase of preparations for holding the legislative elections, by formally registering the 36 competing electoral lists that will compete for the 132 seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC).

The last few days have been loaded with surprises, as the competing electoral lists came as the following: Eight lists affiliated with the Palestinian factions, including three Fatah lists (the movement's central list, the freedom list belonging to Nasser Al-Qudwa and Marwan Barghouti alliance, and the Future list led by Mohammed Dahlan's movement), a unified Hamas list called Al Quds Maw'edouna (in Jerusalem we meet), and four other lists affiliated with the left, in addition to 28 lists belonging to independents, youth movements and trade unions.

Israel is arresting Hamas members ahead of the election – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/MiddleEastMonitor]

Israel is arresting Hamas members ahead of the election – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/MiddleEastMonitor]

According to initial estimations deduced from the map of competition between political forces in the scene, there is a narrow margin of victory for independent forces, as opposed to higher (but average in general) winning chances for faction-oriented lists, because the Palestinian voter will be essentially polarised by two major forces, which are Hamas and Fatah.

Hamas will enter the elections with a unified list, and it will benefit from the dispersion of votes for Fatah, which this time is participating in the elections with three electoral lists. That is to say that the Fatah voting bloc will be divided into three separate directions, which means that we would possibly witness a similar experience to what happened in 2006 when Hamas won the first place, but without forgetting the difference in victory rates, due to the fact that the proportional representation system prevents any list from obtaining voting percentages above 50 per cent.

While 11 lists competed in the 2006 legislative election, only seven succeeded to enter the PLC. Thus, 1.3 million Palestinians were eligible to vote at the time. In the 2021 elections, the situation was significantly different, as the number of participating........

© Middle East Monitor

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