Despite its various challenges, the BJP-led National Development Alliance (NDA) will again be in power after the upcoming elections, with an increased vote share. Though it continues to enjoy majority support, fewer Indians are satisfied with the incumbent Narendra Modi government than in 2019. More voters consider unemployment and inflation far more critical than Hindutva or Ram temple. An overwhelming number of Indians believe India belongs to people of all religions, not just to Hindus. The singular factor that helps NDA overcome these challenges and come to power again is Modi. NDA is expected to retain its strength in the North and Western regions and gain more seats from the East, North East, and even South. These could be the biggest takeaways from the country’s most reliable pre-poll survey conducted by the Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), which met 10019 respondents across 19 states with three weeks remaining for voting to commence.
The most significant assumption to be arrived at from the survey is that with Rahul Gandhi as its leader, the opposition INDIA alliance cannot oust Modi from power. The Catch-22 is other than Rahul, no leader is even worth considering to challenge Modi. But this reflects not so much Rahul’s strength as the desperate state of the Opposition’s leadership in general.
This is despite the Modi government’s considerable loss of popularity compared to the last election. The primary reason for NDA’s advance to a hat trick is Modi’s leadership, which has no “clear and close” challenge. In other words, unless the Opposition finds a more capable leader, the BJP faces no serious threat to its power. If Modi is the choice for Prime Minister for 48% of respondents, Rahul is a distant second with 27%. Only 3% favours opposition leaders like Aravind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee, and Akhilesh Yadav. The respondents chose these names themselves, as the survey proposed none.
Yet, the survey provides much succour to those worried about the growing communalism in the country. What’s more reassuring than knowing that an overwhelming number (79%) of Indians believe that this country belongs to all religions, not just Hindus? Isn’t it great that plurality is not yet passé........