As Kerala marks the 70th year of formation, the state is bracing for an Assembly election that promises to be among the most bitterly contested in its political history. Far more than a routine alternation of power, the forthcoming contest carries existential implications for all three major political formations. For the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), victory has become imperative to preserve what is arguably its last bastion in the country at a time when the Indian Communist movement itself has entered its centenary. For the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), another defeat in one of its remaining strongholds would hasten the collapse of an already enfeebled alliance. Relatively, the stakes appear lower for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which still has no legislative presence in Kerala. Yet even for the NDA, the election is crucial to consolidate its emergence as a credible third force and to accelerate its long-term project of reshaping Kerala’s political landscape.

The verdict of the recent local self-government (LSG) elections has already sent a powerful message. The massive anti-incumbency sentiment against the LDF cut across religions and castes. Even though disaggregated statistical data is yet to be released, the broad trends are unmistakable: while Hindu communities appear to have moved in large numbers towards the NDA, minorities have consolidated almost entirely behind the UDF. The outcome suggests a sharp polarisation along religious lines—one that leaves the LDF stranded without any dependable vote bank of its own.

This is the LDF’s most serious predicament. Unlike its rivals, it does not enjoy the comfort of entrenched religious or caste loyalties. Its electoral appeal has historically rested on governance, ideological coherence, and a perception of principled secularism. With anti-incumbency running high and identity polarisation intensifying, the Left’s prospects in the coming Assembly election appear bleak. Logically, this should compel the LDF to consciously reject identity politics and attempt a political rebranding that transcends religious and caste divides. But with barely four months left for the polls, such a makeover seems neither feasible nor credible.

There is an instructive parallel in what happened to the Left in West Bengal. Once the Trinamool Congress steadily drew away Muslim votes—earlier a solid base of the CPI(M)—the BJP simultaneously began to eat into Hindu votes. Squeezed from both ends, the Left was left with little social space to survive. The Congress had already been marginalised earlier, leaving the field open for a new bipolarity that ultimately proved fatal to the Left Front.

Kerala has so far avoided such a denouement, largely because........

© Mathrubhumi English