As I write these words, two phases of the 2024 General Elections have been conducted, and some 190 constituencies have voted to choose their representatives to the 18th Lok Sabha. The country is awash in inflammatory rhetoric, some of it spewed by no less an eminence than the Prime Minister himself. The language used, and the tone and terms of his attacks on the Opposition, suggest an increasing desperation on the Government’s part after the first two phases have signalled that things are not going the way of the ruling party.
The writing has been on the wall for some time, but our media has been reluctant to see it. The public has simply not been given enough reasons to vote for the ruling party a third time. Those who put Mr Modi in office in 2014 expecting that he would generate new jobs have no reason to vote for him again when they still do not have a job. People are acutely conscious that they cannot afford to buy at the market the same items that they could a decade ago. A staggering 80% of our population has experienced a decline in its incomes since 2014. The aam aadmi’s purchasing power and household savings have collapsed.
These are the issues being reflected in the voting patterns so far. There may not be a strong “wave” for or against anyone but there is no enthusiasm for the powers-that-be either. The communalisation of political discourse is failing to create the desired polarisation and has been overused. Mr Modi’s omnipresence and bombast are beginning to leave most people indifferent – which in many ways is worse than the active dislike many already feel.
It seems increasingly clear that the BJP is losing seats everywhere, including in the Hindi-belt states it had dominated in 2019. In the last general elections, it had won every seat in six states, all but one seat in three states, and all but two in two states. In all these states the BJP has only one way to go – down. Even if it retains more than half of its seats, it is staring at the certainty that it will lose its majority in the Lok Sabha. Its........