In late November, a coordinated offensive by two Syrian rebel factions — Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, and the Free Syrian Army, or FSA — resulted in the seizure of key areas in the Aleppo-Idlib region in northwest Syria. Notably, these areas include two critical transportation routes that connect Damascus with northern Syria. However, this development may have broader implications for the region.
The major power beyond the offensive is Turkey, who has long played a crucial role in northern Syria, leveraging its influence over various rebel groups, particularly the Free Syrian Army, to secure its interests. Ankara has established a zone of control in northern Syria, using proxy forces to ensure its strategic dominance. The FSA, directly supported by Turkey, has been a cornerstone of Ankara’s approach to the conflict. However, Turkey’s relationship with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham — a Sunni Islamist group with roots in al-Qaeda — has been more complex. While tensions exist, there have been instances of cooperation between the two, particularly in military matters.
Turkey’s involvement in Syria is driven by two main concerns that it has struggled to address through diplomacy with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The first is the Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, specifically the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, often referred to as Rojava. Turkey views the Kurdish-led forces in this region as a direct threat due to their alleged links to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, a group classified as a terrorist organization by Ankara. The second concern is the massive influx of Syrian refugees into Turkey, which has strained its economy and sparked domestic political tensions, particularly for President........