A dose of realism on net zero is overdue: Wales must stop chasing impossible climate targets and start putting voters first |
A remarkable realism is starting to ripple through the global establishment on energy policy.
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Spearheaded by Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, the world’s progressives are reluctantly, but increasingly, recognising that their previous attachment to zero emissions at all costs was misplaced. The relentless drive to renewable energy and net zero is reaching the end of the road.
The latest to wake up to the now undeniable evidence that the orthodoxy on environmental policy is no longer serving their national economy and their electorate is Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru. Wales for a long time has gone further and faster than the rest of the UK on net zero with no rhyme or reason.
Politicians in Wales have fallen into the age-old trap of making themselves feel very important by making very big promises. Promises that they could never keep. Now, either having to deliver these promises in their local authorities, or realising they are on the cusp of power in Cardiff Bay, they are back peddling.
They now realise it doesn’t make sense for Wales. If the UK makes up a mere fraction (less than 1 per cent) of global emissions, Wales makes up a fraction of that fraction. On top of that, it is a place which will struggle more with the implications of net zero.
There is a greater reliance on cars in Wales, where 79 per cent of commutes are by car compared to 66 per cent in England, less reliable public transport and on top of that, lower wages combined with higher taxes which force households to watch the pennies even more than their neighbours in England.
So it was always absurd that Wales would pursue net zero by 2035, given England’s commitment to a still implausible 2050. The empty promise to achieve Net Zero - by 2035 or indeed 2050 - was always ridiculous and never going to happen.
But not mentioned in Ap Iorwerth’s comments was the commitment to achieve net zero in the public sector by 2030, a perhaps even more implausible goal.
Even Labour council leaders have been pulling their hair out, telling their own Welsh government it will cost a fortune and isn’t realistic. Look at Bridgend, where they have been forced to abandon their own attempts at net zero by 2030.
Bear in mind that in almost every metric of public services, Wales lags behind England, be it in healthcare, education or the quality of the roads. Given the possibility - some may say likelihood - that he will be the next First Minister of Wales, it is vital he is clear that this commitment is at the very least being paused. Whether well-intentioned or not, Welsh taxpayers will inevitably bear the burden, be it in higher taxes or cuts to public services.
In the backdrop to this is of course the UK government’s environmental policy. Despite the now undeniable evidence that the pursuit of net zero is doing serious harm to the economy, the minister responsible, Ed MIliband, is not just pressing ahead, he is doubling down.
That will be a challenge for the next Welsh government, of whatever stripe. Take the zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, a national policy to force car manufacturers to meet rising annual targets for new electric vehicle sales, starting at 22 per cent in 2024 and rising to 100 per cent by 2035. A policy not just being forced on car manufacturers, but being forced on Wales as well.
Electric cars in Wales are not everything they were cracked up to be. You can barely get across the Severn to Bristol and back without needing to recharge. Charging points are a rare sight, especially in rural Wales. And if you drive a large electric car for your school run in Cardiff, the council plans to hit you with a new family car tax.
For many years, the Welsh government has seen its role as pursuing net zero with even greater vim and vigour than the government in Westminster.
As a result, Wales has suffered and taxes have gone up. The next first minister has an opportunity to take a different approach, focused more on what Welsh voters really care about: the cost of living, the health service, their schools and their roads.
That should mean not only slowing down the Welsh government’s pursuit of net zero, but pushing back on diktats imposed on it from Westminster.
William Yarwood is the media campaign manager of the TaxPayers' Alliance
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