Trump says he’s won in Iran - but this crisis is far from over |
After weeks of strikes and counterstrikes that have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and unsettled the global economy, the announcement of a two-week US and Iranian ceasefire has been met with mixed degrees of celebration.
Listen to this article
However, relief should not be confused with resolution. Donald Trump is already framing this pause as a historic victory of American coercion. That interpretation may resonate domestically, but it does not fully capture the broader strategic picture.
In geopolitical terms, a ceasefire is not synonymous with peace. Without a strategic settlement, it frequently serves as a tactical tool, creating space for combatants to regroup, reassess, and prepare for the potential resumption of hostilities. To understand what is really at stake, we must look beyond the temporary halt in airstrikes and ask what motivated both sides to step back from the brink, and how they intend to exploit the quiet.
Both sides can claim the ceasefire as a strategic victory that demonstrates that their approach to the conflict is working. Faced with the economic reality of a prolonged Middle Eastern war, the Trump administration was looking for an off-ramp, and it has secured not only........