The UK economy grew 0.6 per cent in March, beating forecasts of a contraction.

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After weeks of war and oil market turmoil, that looks like good news.

It isn't - not yet. The Iran conflict only began at the end of February, so today's figures cover one month of the shock. Higher oil and gas prices take time to feed through to inflation, reaching households when Ofgem resets the price cap next month. From there, bills could rise and the pressure spread through to the economy.

Without action, our IPPR modelling suggests inflation could peak between 3.6 and 5.8 per cent, with GDP growth falling as low as 0.3 per cent - well below........

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