30 August 2024, 11:38
By David Buik
Considering the months of July and August are supposed to be focused on annual family holidays, revelry, the juice of Bacchus and sunshine, investors, to their irritation and concern, have found this period incredibly challenging.
Thank goodness for technology and the supreme levels of communication.
Their quality has made a measurable contribution to smoothing many a furrowed brow of concern across an array of dealing rooms and ‘loungers’ on sun-kissed beaches. That old adage of ‘Sell in May and come back on St Leger Day!’ became redundant years ago!
For a period of nearly five weeks “the Grand Old Duke of York” appeared in all his glory, as US and Japanese equities bounced around like a cork in a bath, as investors attempted to read the runes in the sand on inflation, Central banks thoughts on cutting interest rates and whether to believe some highly respected analysts and economists that some degree of recession could be felt in the US, despite the second quarter yielding GDP of 2.8%, upgraded yesterday to 3%.
One can say ‘never say never’ but it must surely be a 16/1 shot against a recession in the next six months.
Many suspect that the outcome to the Presidential election on 5th November will provide some clarification as to the direction of travel for the US economy. Wall Street would probably prefer a Trump victory, but Kamala Harris appears to have found favour with many voters, aided and abetted by........