The Strait of Hormuz is where the fate of the world economy rests |
I’d like you to close your eyes and think hard about the Strait of Hormuz.
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It’s the narrow strip of bright blue water which links the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, with the United Arab Emirates And Oman on one side, and the vast expanse of Iran on the other.
Its warm waters – about 25° right now – teeming with tuna, dolphin, turtles and coral reefs.
At its narrowest, it measures only 24 miles across. But through this watery choke point, in normal times, chug huge quantities of shipping.
These vessels keep the region supplied with food, vehicles and medical supplies… and the world economy fuelled with oil and liquified natural gas, as well as many essential minerals.
You can think of it as being bit like a road, divided into two lanes going in two different directions, each lane a couple of miles wide.
All of this matters because right now, it has become the absolute centre of the Middle East war and the place where in the short term the fate of the world economy rests.
Last night and today, three giant oil tankers were among six ships hit by the Iranians.
In his first statement, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who didn’t appear in person and is said to be injured, called for the strait to remain closed.
Hold on, you may be thinking, haven’t the Americans and Israelis blasted Iran’s navy to bits, including sinking 16 mine-laying vessels – can’t they make this globally crucial waterway safe?
Donald Trump’s warned that if Iran blocks it, they’ll face consequences at a level never seen before.
But this might be easier said than done.
You can never tell these days which footage is fake and what’s real but film’s been released of underground tunnels on the Iranian side of the water, rather like Hamas used in Gaza, but this time filled with fast attack boats, mines and missiles ready to be uncorked.
Back in 2002, by the way, the United States staged a major war game exercise simulating an attempt to close the strait; it proved controversial because in it, despite massive military superiority, America lost.
Earlier today the international energy agency said that the war was creating the largest oil supply disruption in history; and its members agreed to release 400 million barrels of stockpiled oil.
Tonight, crude oil is nudging $100 a barrel again.
That’s something you will notice.
Andrew Marr is an author, journalist and presenter for LBC.
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